Hello to all…

..The heat wave across the region will end today as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today..

The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. The headlines continue to cover the situation well. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) The cold front will traverse Western New England mid to late morning and Eastern New England, early through late afternoon. This timing is a bit early than peak heating. This will likely limit any widespread pockets of severe weather but high dewpoints and some instability with forcing from the front may still allow a few pockets of severe weather to develop and urban and poor drainage flash flooding is a concern given the setup.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization. Satellite imagery as of 845 AM shows some breaks in the clouds over central and eastern New England which may allow for enough instability for isolated severe weather and also prime the potential urban and poor drainage flash flood risk.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather/flash flood potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…

..The heat wave across the region will end on Friday as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed interior Southern New England away from the south and east coasts in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe..

The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) The cold front and how it is timed to move through the region. It is currently expected to pass through the area through the morning to mid-afternoon hours from west to east which could limit heating and destabilization in the region in regards to the severe weather potential.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180705_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

 

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Hello to all…

..A weak frontal boundary that is more like a wind shift boundary will tap into the intense heat and humidity and bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms between 2-8 PM across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices in the upper 90s through 104 degrees when factoring in high Dewpoints with air temperature. Use caution with any outdoor activities, drink plenty of liquids and try to cool down as much as possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today to monitor the convective potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if convective potential increases beyond current expectations..

We have had intense heat and humidity for the last several days but no real potential for convection as the atmosphere remained warm at all levels with the lack of a convective trigger. Today will be different across Southern New England particularly away from coastal areas. A weak front which will be more like a wind shift boundary will provide a trigger and just enough cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere to allow for the instability to be tapped to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. Weak wind shear values and the triggering mechanism being fairly weak in nature will limit the severe weather potential to an isolated to possibly scattered nature.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today to monitor the convective potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if convective potential increases beyond current expectations. This will be the only coordination message on the Tuesday severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more