Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Night 12/29/19 Through Tuesday Afternoon 12/31/19 – Wintry Mix/Ice Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..A long duration storm system will affect the region Sunday Night into Tuesday Afternoon with the potential for a wintry mix, significant icing and an ice storm in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Interior Northeast Massachusetts should closely monitor this potential as well..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for a half-inch of radial ice accumulation and a coating to 2 inches of snow. If icing amounts of a half-inch or more are realized, the potential exists for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages and this will bear close monitoring..
..SKYWARN Activation is likely for this storm event particularly Monday into Tuesday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible with details on activation planning to follow in future messages most likely during the day Sunday..
A long duration storm system will affect the region Sunday Night into Tuesday. The storm system will likely bring a wintry mix and the potential for significant icing in portions of interior Southern New England north and west of I-495 in Massachusetts and across Northern Connecticut. Across Rhode Island and much of Eastern Massachusetts, a wintry mix at the start should turn to mostly rain across this area with the one exception being interior Northeast Massachusetts which will be on the line between significant icing and plain rain. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Amount of freezing rain and ice accretion that is realized in the Winter Storm Watch area. Weather models appear to be coalescing around a prolonged period of freezing rain and icing. Some models even have icing amounts of greater than a half-inch to as much a 0.75″ of ice. If that were to occur, scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages would occur. This trend will be monitored closely to see if higher resolution short range models have the same solution.
2.) Interior Northeast Massachusetts is not currently in the Winter Storm Watch area but will need to be monitored closely as they will be the closest to the warm front and whether it will be a cold rain just above freezing or below freezing with freezing rain and icing. This will be monitored closely to see if this area has a risk of prolonged icing.
3.) Precipitation is expected to extend into Tuesday Afternoon as a coastal low develops along the cold front. Where this low tracks will determine if freezing rain and icing continues, whether it changes back to snow and perhaps brings wintry precipitation to areas of Eastern Massachusetts that will see mostly rain or whether it allows for rain across much of Southern New England. As we get closer to this part of the prolonged event, more details will become known and we can better assess precipitation amounts and types of precipitation.
SKYWARN Activation is likely for this storm event particularly Monday into Tuesday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible with details on activation planning to follow in future messages most likely during the day Sunday. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Boston/Norton Snow and Ice Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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