Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 5/26/21 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening between 5-10 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado or two as a secondary threat.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and North-Central Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
Wednesday will feature warm and humid conditions as winds turn to the southwest with a pre-frontal trough and cold front moving into Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in portions of Western and Central New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and conditions are more favorable than we saw on Sunday where no strong to severe thunderstorms developed. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front through portions of Southern New England. The timing now is expected to be a bit past peak heating after 5-6 PM which could reduce the threat a bit particularly for an isolated tornado or two but with strong wind shear and full sun for the entire today, there remains the threat for some organized isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.
2.) Amount of instability in the region with sunshine allowing for destabilization is in place in the region so this factor is met.
3.) Wind shear profiles will be favorable for some level of organization to any strong to severe thunderstorms that can develop with the possibility for rotating storms and a secondary threat for an isolated tornado or two but given the timing of the front, these conditions will have to overcome some lessening instability past peak heating of the day.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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