Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/14/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Conditions will become warm and humid on Wednesday as a warm front will swing through Southern New England. An impulse in the atmosphere will traverse the area near or shortly after the time of peak heating resulting in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover in the morning as the warm front moves through resulting in less heating and destabilization in the area.
2.) The timing of the impulse swinging through the atmosphere as a later arrival would mean less of a threat for severe weather or it would be confined to western parts of the area whereas a bit faster timing could put areas even further east at the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Wednesday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210713_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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