Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/27/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded much of Southern New England to a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Tuesday as a cold front will bring an end to a short round of heat and summer temperatures in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as it moves into Southern New England and whether it’s passage is close enough to the higher level of instability parameters to trigger strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Wind shear will be strongest in Northern New England but sufficient wind shear values will be present particularly in Northern Massachusetts that if it overlaps with higher levels of instability would allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Some instability parameters along with higher levels of wind shear could persist passed peak heating to allow for continued strong to severe thunderstorm development well into the evening and allow for severe weather potential in the southern portions of Southern New England provided those favorable parameters occur as forecasted,

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210726_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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