Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/25/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Intense heat and humidity expected into Monday with a cold front which will bring somewhat cooler and much less humid air that will be a trigger for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe remains around 12-10 PM Monday Afternoon and Evening and SPC has indicated an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 500 PM Monday Evening for portions of Eastern and Southeast Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late morning through evening..
We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region with many locations in a 7-day heat wave. As of 1045 AM, Doppler Radar is showing a line of showers and a few thunderstorms from Southeast New York into Northwest Massachusetts into Northern New England. There are cloud breaks over much of interior Southern New England with low clouds from the ocean over southeast coastal New England. Further west, there is more clearing followed by the cold front which could be a trigger mechanism for a second round of strong to severe thunderstorms from late afternoon to mid-evening.
It is unclear whether the first round of activity, the second round of activity or both rounds will have severe weather potential. Models imply that the second round will be more robust with less severe potential in the first round of activity. Both rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms will bear watching for severe potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. The major key factor is as follows:
How the two rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity and severe weather potential evolves. There could be activity further east with the first round of showers and thunderstorms that strengthens in the interior with the instability and some heating taking place followed by a break with enough sunshine for destabilization that allows a second round of activity for later this afternoon and evening. The first round could be non-severe with clearing that allows the severe weather potential to be realized for the second round of activity or the activity between the two rounds doesn’t allow for destabilization such that the severe potential is more muted or isolated. At this time, the scattered severe thunderstorm activity is still expected and the second round of activity is slightly more favored to produce severe weather both rounds of activity will be monitored and both could produce at least some severe weather in scattered locations. Once again, we remind folks that not every single city or town will experience a strong to severe thunderstorm. The coverage could be anywhere from scattered to numerous to more isolated, depending on how the two rounds of activity evolve.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late morning through evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook…
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion – 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org