Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/26/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms remain possible to likely in interior Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut into Northwest Rhode Island where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather but areas across interior North-Central Rhode Island through Eastern Massachusetts along and west of I-95 corridor to the coast should also monitor as SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is anytime between 12 PM-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region..
A cold front will move through the region timed with peak heating and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front timed near peak heating to allow for enough instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is occurring with abundant sunshine over the area and even in Eastern New York where a few showers have developed, there is still sufficient sunshine allowing for heating and destabilization.
2.) Sufficient forcing as the front moves into the region to tap into and trigger the instability in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development. That is expected to be in place per latest forecast models.
3.) Sufficiently strong wind shear values making it far enough south with proper jet stream orientation to allow for severe thunderstorm development. This is also in place per latest forecast models.
4.) If the 3 above factors can align, it could bring the typical main threats of strong to damaging winds and hail to be a bit more widespread and also have a secondary risk of an isolated tornado in our coverage area. As is typical of these situations, not every location will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but the coverage could be a bit more extensive if factors 1-3 line up.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org