Storm Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday Afternoon and Evening 11/30/22 Strong to Damaging Wind and Heavy Rainfall Potential and Thursday 12/1/22 Strong to Damaging Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..A strong cold front will move through the region Wednesday Afternoon and Evening bringing with it strong to damaging winds and a brief period of heavy rainfall. The strong winds and heavy rainfall will be timed around the Wednesday evening commute with another round of strong winds behind the front as we move into Thursday with the strongest winds Thursday in Western and Central Massachusetts..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM Wednesday through 1 AM Thursday for Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts to 55 MPH in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Wind Gusts will diminish overnight between 10 PM Wednesday Evening and 1 AM Thursday and then increase after 9 AM Thursday through early Thursday Evening and could be as high as 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 1 PM Wednesday through 5 PM Thursday Evening for Essex, Suffolk, Central and Southeast Middlesex and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts to 55 MPH in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Winds will subside between 10 PM Wednesday Evening and 1 AM Thursday then increase after 9 AM Thursday through 5 PM Thursday Evening. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. .
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM Wednesday through 5 PM Thursday Evening for Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts to 55 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Winds will subside after 9 PM Wednesday Night but increase again after 9 AM Thursday through 5 PM Thursday Evening..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM Wednesday through 5 PM Thursday Evening for Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and a few isolated wind gusts to 55 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Winds will subside after 9 PM Wednesday Night but increase again after 9 AM Thursday through 5 PM Thursday Evening.
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Wednesday Morning through 9 PM Wednesday Evening for Northern Connecticut for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Wind Gusts will subside after 9 PM Wednesday Evening but increase again after 9 AM Thursday early Thursday Evening could be as high as 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to damaging wind and heavy rainfall potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and the continued strong wind potential through early Thursday Evening..

A strong cold front will bring with it a period of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds to the region during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening with additional strong wind gusts behind the front lasting through early Thursday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) How well the strong winds mix down to the surface. If temperatures reach the Uppers 50s to Lower 60s as expected, that will allow those winds to efficiently get down to the surface.
2.) Whether a fine line of convective showers and perhaps even isolated thunderstorms also help support bringing the stronger winds down to the surface.
3.) Winds will subside late Wednesday Evening and then increase again Thursday Morning after 9 AM resulting in another period of strong to damaging wind gusts will occur behind the front during the day Thursday through early Thursday Evening with the strongest wind gusts in Western and Central Massachusetts and expanding into Northeast Massachusetts where Wind Advisories continue through 5 PM Thursday though areas outside of the Wind Advisory on Thursday could see wind gusts up to 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to damaging wind and heavy rainfall potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night strong to damaging winds as we shift into operations mode. If time allows, another coordination message will be posted focused on the Thursday strong to damaging winds by 10 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Wind Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Wind Gust Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Maps:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Max-Wind-Gust-Wednesday-Afternoon-and-Evening.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Max-Wind-Gust-Thursday.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org