Storm Coordination Message #4 – Monday Evening 3/13/23-Wednesday Morning 3/15/23 Long Duration Multi-Hazard Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Significant Coastal Storm Likely for Southern New England Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning. This will be a multi-hazard long duration event with Heavy Snow, heavy rain, strong to damaging winds, wet snow load and strong winds causing potential damage and the potential for several cycles of at least minor coastal flooding. Exact placement of impacts and potential hazards will be affected by as little as a 25-50 mile storm track difference and models remain variable in the track position. This is an updated initial set of thinking that will likely change as we get closer to the storm event..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 8 PM Monday Evening through 8 AM Wednesday Morning for Franklin, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-20″ of snow with isolated higher amounts, highest amounts in higher elevations but all elevations will fall into the 12-20″ range and wind gusts to 55 MPH. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and with the strong wind gusts scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are likely in this area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 8 PM Monday Evening through 8 AM Wednesday Morning for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in the higher elevations along wind gusts to 55 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and with the potential for wind gusts to 55 MPH, this could lead to scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Hartford County Connecticut, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in the higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet and with the potential for wind gusts to 50-55 MPH, this could lead to at least scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts, Southeast Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow and wind gusts 60 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow will be heavy and wet and with the potential for wind gusts to 60 MPH, this could lead to at least scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 AM Tuesday Morning through 8 AM Wednesday Morning for Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Essex, and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and from 8 AM Tuesday Morning through 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for up to 1 foot of flooding possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways..
..Adjustments to Winter Weather, Wind and Coastal flood headlines are possible in future updates. Additional adjustments to the snowfall forecast are also likely as models continue to coalesce on the storm track and a subtle shift in track can have huge changes to the impacts in the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely. An initial schedule of nets is listed below and will be updated this evening. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A significant coastal storm is likely for Southern New England and it has the potential to be a multi-hazard and long duration event. The headlines depict the current thinking though there remains some disparity in the model guidance and small track guidance differences will have huge impacts on hazards. This is especially becoming true now in Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island where some models indicate much greater snow than currently forecast while others maintain much lighter amounts. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect to the Coventry RI to Bristol RI to Taunton Mass corridor in this update and Winter Storm Warnings expanded to include other interior areas of Southern New England. Key factors remain:
1.) A subtle shift as small as 25-50 miles will have huge impacts to the hazards over the area. With a closer to the coast track meaning heavy wet snow confined to more of the higher elevations of Western and Northern Massachusetts while a slightly further offshore track would bring the heavy wet snow to lower elevations and potentially even a period of wet snow for some coastal areas of Southern New England. The model trends have remained with a more eastward path but there remains disparity in some of the model guidance. Also, its worth noting that models will have much difficulty whether areas receive a cold rain at 34-35 degrees versus heavy wet snow at 32-33 degrees and it could make all the difference in heavy snow accumulation versus heavy rainfall, particularly in lower valley locations and in Southeastern New England. Spotter reports around precip type, rough elevation, snowfall amount, wind gusts and storm damage will be very critical for this storm event.
2.) Strong to damaging winds are likely across coastal areas with strong wind gusts inland and in the higher terrain. This aspect bears watching for infrastructure damage at the coast as well as inland and interior higher terrain locations where heavy wet snow clinging to trees and power lines with the strong winds are likely to cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with a more widespread infrastructure event not out of the question. High Wind Watches have been expanded to include areas such as Boston and Blue Hill in addition to Cape Ann, Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and additional wind headlines will likely be posted for other areas.
3.) While astronomical tides are low, the fact the coastal storm will stall near or over the Southern New England coast could cause multiple tide cycles of minor coastal flooding with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding possible particularly due to wave action which will build over the tide cycles. Coastal Flood Watches are now posted for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely. An initial schedule of nets is listed below and will be updated this evening. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Here is an initial Amateur Radio Net Schedule – more frequencies etc. will be added in the final storm message later tonight:

146.940-Mount Tom Repeater: 800 PM and 1000 PM Monday Evening as needed, 0600 AM Tuesday Morning and hourly to every 2 hours on Tuesday thereafter.
146.970-Paxton Repeater: 730 AM Tuesday Morning and every 2 hours or hourly on Tuesday thereafter as needed.
145.450-Fitchburg Repeater/145.370-Gardner Repeater (Rte-2 Corridor System): 730 AM Tuesday Morning and every 2 hours or hourly on Tuesday thereafter as needed.
-The New England Reflector system *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system will be monitored during the entire storm event.

Other SKYWARN Amateur Radio Repeaters with potential nets for Tuesday on a schedule that will be TBD and will attempt to finalize as we get into Monday Evening (and this maybe difficult as it may hinge on rain to snow changeover which is difficult to determine and varies via model guidance):
146.955-Westford Repeater
146.895-Walpole Repeater
146.640-Waltham Repeater/145.230-Boston Repeater
146.790-Vernon CT Repeater
147.225-Killingly CT Repeater
NB1RI Repeater System for RI
147.180-Bridgewater MA Repeater
147.000-Dartmouth MA Repeater
146.955-Barnstable MA Repeater (the 600 AM Cape & Islands WX Net will be monitored in the morning)

Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps/Infographics, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement and Snow Maps/Infographics:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Hazards_Graphic_3_13_23_3_15_23.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Hazards_Graphic_Main_Points.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning Statement & Infographics:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Hazards_Graphic_3_13_23_3_15_23.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Max_Wind_Gusts_3_14_23_3_15_23.png

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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