Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/1/25 Severe Weather/Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday Morning and will likely be non-severe but could produce frequent lightning, urban and poor drainage flooding and will be monitored. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening between 3-9 PM across Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats for portions of the region..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a marginal risk for severe weather for all of Southern New England for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor any thunderstorm flooding potential for Tuesday Morning and any severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
A warm front will push through the region Tuesday Morning followed by a cold front late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will bring at least 2 rounds of thunderstorms with the morning thunderstorms likely sub-severe and the afternoon/evening thunderstorms having the best chance for severe potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) How extensive morning showers and thunderstorms are and how much clearing occurs after that activity moves out of the area. The more clearing that develops, the greater heating and destabilization to allow for severe thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening.
2.) The morning activity is expected to be non-severe but it will be monitored and could produce localized street flooding during the Tuesday Morning commute.
3.) Timing of the cold front near the timing of peak heating presuming sufficient clearing develops.
4.) As always with severe/non-severe thunderstorm events, not all locations will receive a severe/non-severe thunderstorm. They will be isolated to scattered with pockets of wind damage, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding in those isolated to scattered locations.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor any thunderstorm flooding potential for Tuesday Morning and any severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day2otlk_20250630_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio