Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 3/1/17 Severe Weather Potential & Thursday 3/2/17 Strong Wind Potential
Hello to all…
..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region. It is noted that the severe weather threat could remain southwest of our area but there is still enough factors where we need to remain vigilant on severe weather potential in portions of Southern New England particularly southwest parts of our coverage area..
..Strong Winds are expected during the day Thursday behind the strong cold front. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area from 1 AM to 7 PM Thursday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts to 55 MPH likely. These winds may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. SKYWARN self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential for Thursday..
In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Looking at radar and other trends, there is the possibility that this activity could remain southwest of our coverage area but there remains enough parameters where we need to remain vigilant for any severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:
1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms and low clouds over the region Wednesday Morning into early afternoon not allowing for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.
3.) The showers and any thunderstorms earlier in the day swings through and the strongest activity and severe weather parameters remain southwest of the area.
Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will still bear watching. The timing of the severe weather is also rather problematic. There could be activity as early as midday but its more likely to be a later afternoon and evening event if activity can get move into our coverage area and tap the strong winds and the remaining favorable parameters.
Behind the cold front, strong winds are likely and a Wind Advisory is posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated wind gusts to 55 MPH possible. These winds will likely be strong enough to produce isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. SKYWARN self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential for Thursday. This will be the last coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Another coordination message on the strong winds for Thursday will be posted either by late Wednesday Evening or Thursday Morning depending on Wednesday’s severe weather potential being realized. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region. It is noted that the severe weather threat could remain southwest of our area but there is still enough factors where we need to remain vigilant on severe weather potential in portions of Southern New England particularly southwest parts of our coverage area..
..Strong Winds are expected during the day Thursday behind the strong cold front. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area from 1 AM to 7 PM Thursday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts to 55 MPH likely. These winds may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. SKYWARN self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential for Thursday..
In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Looking at radar and other trends, there is the possibility that this activity could remain southwest of our coverage area but there remains enough parameters where we need to remain vigilant for any severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:
1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms and low clouds over the region Wednesday Morning into early afternoon not allowing for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.
3.) The showers and any thunderstorms earlier in the day swings through and the strongest activity and severe weather parameters remain southwest of the area.
Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will still bear watching. The timing of the severe weather is also rather problematic. There could be activity as early as midday but its more likely to be a later afternoon and evening event if activity can get move into our coverage area and tap the strong winds and the remaining favorable parameters.
Behind the cold front, strong winds are likely and a Wind Advisory is posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated wind gusts to 55 MPH possible. These winds will likely be strong enough to produce isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. SKYWARN self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential for Thursday. This will be the last coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Another coordination message on the strong winds for Thursday will be posted either by late Wednesday Evening or Thursday Morning depending on Wednesday’s severe weather potential being realized. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box