Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/6/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..The heat wave across the region will end on Friday as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed interior Southern New England away from the south and east coasts in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe..
The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:
1.) The cold front and how it is timed to move through the region. It is currently expected to pass through the area through the morning to mid-afternoon hours from west to east which could limit heating and destabilization in the region in regards to the severe weather potential.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180705_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..The heat wave across the region will end on Friday as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed interior Southern New England away from the south and east coasts in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe..
The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:
1.) The cold front and how it is timed to move through the region. It is currently expected to pass through the area through the morning to mid-afternoon hours from west to east which could limit heating and destabilization in the region in regards to the severe weather potential.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180705_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box