Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Night 12/16/20-Thursday Afternoon 12/17/20 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Potential remains for a significant major winter storm for now the central and southern parts of Southern New England and could spread into the rest of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the system as it approaches our region. The major winter storm will have the potential to bring heavy snow, the potential for whiteout and near blizzard conditions, strong wind gusts at the coast of up to 50 MPH and the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts except for Nantucket Island for the potential of 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The Winter Storm Watch is also now expanded into Norfolk, Suffolk, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for 7-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts..
..Additional Watches and Warnings may be required in future updates pending future model updates and the track, speed and intensity of the storm system as it approaches our region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon..

A potentially significant and major winter storm is now expected across the central and southern parts of Southern New England but it could spread into all of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the winter storm. The headlines depict the current thinking which included an expansion of the Winter Storm Watch area northward into additional portions of Massachusetts from Springfield, Northampton, and Worcester into Boston. Key factors include:

1.) Where the cutoff of snowfall occurs in northern and northwest parts of the area, this could be between the Route 2 and Mass Pike corridors or further north along or north of the Route 2 corridor.
2.) Multiple models bring very heavy snowfall to the Winter Storm Watch area included into the expanded Winter Storm Watch area with some potential for areas just north of the current Winter Storm Watch area to get into this heavy snowfall area. This might require additional Winter Storm Watches for Northern Massachusetts. The southernmost model which keeps the heaviest snow near or just along the south coast has continued to gradually shift northward to align with international and other model guidance. Other model guidance are even further north with the heaviest snow but currently the heaviest snow is expected in and near the current Winter Storm Watch area.
3.) Areas of 12″ or more of snow could occur somewhere in the Winter Storm Watch area. There is also the potential it could include areas of the Winter Storm Watch and areas north and west of the current watch area and future model runs will determine that potential and where additional Winter Storm Watches may be needed if necessary and whether areas currently under Winter Storm Watches get upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.
4.) The low pressure system will not be particularly strong but the pressure gradient of winds between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north coupled with high astronomical tides will result in minor to possibly low-end moderate coastal flooding depending on the strength of the winds at the time of high tide.
5.) Wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected along Southeast coastal New England. This could result in isolated tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. If the system were to be stronger than currently modeled, the potential for stronger wind gusts would increase. The snow should not be particularly heavy and wet though that aspect will bear watching for areas of southeast coastal of New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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