Storm Coordination Message #2 – Storm Hazards Friday 1/14/22-Saturday AM 1/15/22 & Sunday Night 1/16/22-Monday 1/17/22

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern starting Friday into Saturday Morning with an offshore ocean storm affecting Southeast New England and a second more widespread significant storm for Sunday Night into Monday..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning to late Friday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH possible with isolated higher gusts possible. Wind Advisories maybe needed for other parts of Southeast New England for this same time period. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Snowfall of a Coating to 2″ is expected in Southeast New England from the Friday storm system but trends will be monitored for a slightly closer to the coast track that could bring a higher snowfall particularly to Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands for Friday into Saturday. A flash freeze from rapidly falling temperatures is possible as rain changes to snow and strong winds bring colder air to the surface..
..A Wind Chill Watch is now in effect from Friday Evening through Saturday Morning for Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for dangerously cold wind chills to 30 below zero. Dangerously cold wind chills will affect other portions of Southern New England as well to a bit less of a degree than the Wind Chill Watch area..
..A significant storm system is likely Sunday Night to Monday but track and details are uncertain and will have major impacts on what areas could see heavier snowfall and strong to damaging winds versus heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds. This will be better defined in future updates likely post the Friday into Saturday Morning storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for Friday into Saturday Morning and Sunday Night into Monday for these two significant storm systems..

We are entering an active weather period that will likely require SKYWARN support for storm reports with two different storm systems. The focus of this message is on the Friday into Saturday Morning system though we will briefly touch on the storm system Sunday Night into Monday.

For the Friday into Saturday Morning system, the main threats remain the strong to damaging winds in Southeast New England and the dangerously cold wind chills that will affect the region as the departing storm drives in a period of bitter cold air to the region. There will also be some snow with this system. At this time the snow amounts look light and focused on Southeast New England but the potential will be monitored for a possibility for a period of accumulating snow for the Cape and Islands and possibly Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts depending on the track of an intense offshore ocean storm system. A closer track might allow for the accumulating snow as some weather models indicate but a further offshore track would result in lighter snow or no snow in the region.  A flash freeze is also possible to likely as the storm system initially brings a period of rain before a changeover to snow with the potential for rapidly falling temperatures. This will be monitored in future model updates. In addition, this storm system will bring dangerously cold wind chills across much of Southern New England with the most dangerous wind chills in Northwest Massachusetts where a Wind Chill Watch is in effect.

For the second storm system, it is definitely modeled as an intense storm by all weather models. The details of the impacts will be defined by the track which is quite variable anywhere from a track as far west as Central New York to as far east as Eastern New England. The track differences will determine impacts of heavy snow and/or mixed precipitation along and to the west of the track versus snow to rain along and to the east of the track with strong to damaging winds a concern across the area of this storm system. Future model runs will bring clarity to the hazards in the region and further details will be posted once we get past the Friday into Saturday Morning storm system.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for Friday into Saturday Morning and Sunday Night into Monday for these two significant storm systems. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch statement, Snowfall Maps, Wind Chill Watch Statement and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Chill Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=WSW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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