Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 8/12/23-Sunday 8/13/23 – Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and are possible throughout the rest of Southern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the main timeframe between 4-10 PM though we’ll need to monitor activity into the overnight hours as needed..
..It is also noted that SPC has placed Eastern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening and will be covered in a coordination message for Sunday Morning as needed..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Also given the possibility of overnight severe thunderstorms, having a means to be alerted during the overnight for any severe weather potential is warranted..
Several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Start time of severe weather seems to have settled to be around 4 PM through at least 10 PM and could spill into the overnight period based on the latest model runs. Confidence decreases in severe weather potential after the 10-11 PM timeframe but will bear watching.
2.) The severe weather potential could extend during the overnight hours including the threat for an isolated tornado during this period as wind shear, jet dynamics and turning in the atmosphere compensate for the loss of daytime heating and actually increase through the evening and overnight hours. The overnight aspect of this is uncertain.
3.) There will be several rounds of activity with the potential for 2 or 3 rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours.
It is also noted that SPC has placed Eastern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening and will be covered in a coordination message for Sunday Morning as needed. The potential on Sunday will depend on how convection evolves in the region during Saturday evening and the overnight hours.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Also given the possibility of overnight severe thunderstorms, having a means to be alerted during the overnight for any severe weather potential is warranted. This will be the last update for the Saturday severe weather potential unless a significant update and occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1/Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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