Blizzard Coordination Message #2 – Saturday Afternoon 2/14/15-Sunday Evening 2/15/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Bitter Cold conditions for Friday followed by another Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Particularly for Eastern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening..
..A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect through 11 AM Friday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for wind chill readings as low as 22 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect though 2 PM Friday Afternoon for Western Franklin, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for wind chill readings as low as 24 below zero. Bitter cold wind chills short of advisory criteria will affect the rest of Southern New England overnight through Friday Morning..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect from Saturday Evening to Sunday Evening for Cape Cod, Nantucket, Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for 6-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible with adjustments to the snowfall forecast likely and sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH except for wind gusts to 75 MPH with isolated higher gusts over Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening for All of Rhode Island, Bristol, West-Central Plymouth, Worcester, Western Norfolk, Middlesex and Western Essex Counties and expanded to Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 6-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible with adjustments to the snowfall forecast likely and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 45-55 MPH likely causing a period of near blizzard conditions..
..Model trends have been slightly further east so Winter Storm Watches have not been expanded into other portions of Western New England at this time but will bear close watching. Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are posted for New Hampshire and Southern and Easter Maine. That statement is listed in this coordination message..
..A Coastal Food Watch is now in effect for the possibility of minor to pockets of Moderate Coastal Flooding for late Saturday Night through Sunday Afternoon for the Sunday Morning high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. Areas affected by the past winter storms with coastal flooding are potentially vulnerable for this event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely early Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors..
Another blizzard/major winter storm is in he offing for portions of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area, specifically Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the latest thinking based on the latest weather models. A number of factors for consideration in the forecast:
1.) As typically is the case with these intense major winter storms/blizzards, there will be a sharp western cutoff on the snowfall. This has wobbled to the east in the latest models but could wobble back west, stay the same or wobble east.
2.) The wind threat is significant especially for Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts. Parts of this coast line could see wind gusts near or over hurricane force. Given snow loading and the potential for these damaging winds, an enhanced tree/power outage structural damage threat may be noted in a part of this area. Strong wind gusts to 55 MPH will reach farther back into Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
3.) Snowfall total forecasts may continue to be revised based on model trends and as is typically the case, there will be mesoscale or short-term forecast situations with regards to snow banding and where these bands setup whether it be Eastern New England or just offshore. That said, even if snowfall amounts are closer to 6″ versus 10-14″, given the strong winds, blowing and drifting snow and falling snow, blizzard conditions are quite possible in the Blizzard Watch area with considerable blowing and drifting in the Winter Storm Watch area. Recall the late March 2014 storm that affected portions of the mid-outer Cape, this storm had wind gusts to hurricane force with snow totals in the 5-10″ range which may be thought as ‘lower’ snow totals for a blizzard but can still cause significant issues.
It is noted that snow measuring with these conditions and with all the snow currently on the ground can be very difficult. Here are some tips to help with snow measuring with the current conditions based on feedback from NWS Taunton forecasters:
1.) Put a plywood board or other hard surface on top of existing snow pack and do your measurement in that manner and perhaps do that at a few locations. If no plywood board or hard surface is available, measure on the existing snow pack and try and feel when the ruler hits the frozen pack of prior snow.
2.) Given the blowing and drifting, take many measurements and average (10-15 or even 20). This will help average the snowfall.
3.) The National Weather Service understands that it is very difficult to measure snow given prior storms and the conditions upcoming for the blizzard. All of the reports are appreciated and its understood that all volunteers are making a best effort.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely early Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors. The next coordination message will be issued by 11 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Winter Weather Graphics Page and NWS Gray Maine Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
NWS Taunton MA Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Winter Weather Graphics Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Gray ME Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Bitter Cold conditions for Friday followed by another Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Particularly for Eastern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening..
..A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect through 11 AM Friday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for wind chill readings as low as 22 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect though 2 PM Friday Afternoon for Western Franklin, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for wind chill readings as low as 24 below zero. Bitter cold wind chills short of advisory criteria will affect the rest of Southern New England overnight through Friday Morning..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect from Saturday Evening to Sunday Evening for Cape Cod, Nantucket, Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for 6-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible with adjustments to the snowfall forecast likely and sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH except for wind gusts to 75 MPH with isolated higher gusts over Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening for All of Rhode Island, Bristol, West-Central Plymouth, Worcester, Western Norfolk, Middlesex and Western Essex Counties and expanded to Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 6-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible with adjustments to the snowfall forecast likely and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 45-55 MPH likely causing a period of near blizzard conditions..
..Model trends have been slightly further east so Winter Storm Watches have not been expanded into other portions of Western New England at this time but will bear close watching. Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are posted for New Hampshire and Southern and Easter Maine. That statement is listed in this coordination message..
..A Coastal Food Watch is now in effect for the possibility of minor to pockets of Moderate Coastal Flooding for late Saturday Night through Sunday Afternoon for the Sunday Morning high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. Areas affected by the past winter storms with coastal flooding are potentially vulnerable for this event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely early Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors..
Another blizzard/major winter storm is in he offing for portions of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area, specifically Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the latest thinking based on the latest weather models. A number of factors for consideration in the forecast:
1.) As typically is the case with these intense major winter storms/blizzards, there will be a sharp western cutoff on the snowfall. This has wobbled to the east in the latest models but could wobble back west, stay the same or wobble east.
2.) The wind threat is significant especially for Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts. Parts of this coast line could see wind gusts near or over hurricane force. Given snow loading and the potential for these damaging winds, an enhanced tree/power outage structural damage threat may be noted in a part of this area. Strong wind gusts to 55 MPH will reach farther back into Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
3.) Snowfall total forecasts may continue to be revised based on model trends and as is typically the case, there will be mesoscale or short-term forecast situations with regards to snow banding and where these bands setup whether it be Eastern New England or just offshore. That said, even if snowfall amounts are closer to 6″ versus 10-14″, given the strong winds, blowing and drifting snow and falling snow, blizzard conditions are quite possible in the Blizzard Watch area with considerable blowing and drifting in the Winter Storm Watch area. Recall the late March 2014 storm that affected portions of the mid-outer Cape, this storm had wind gusts to hurricane force with snow totals in the 5-10″ range which may be thought as ‘lower’ snow totals for a blizzard but can still cause significant issues.
It is noted that snow measuring with these conditions and with all the snow currently on the ground can be very difficult. Here are some tips to help with snow measuring with the current conditions based on feedback from NWS Taunton forecasters:
1.) Put a plywood board or other hard surface on top of existing snow pack and do your measurement in that manner and perhaps do that at a few locations. If no plywood board or hard surface is available, measure on the existing snow pack and try and feel when the ruler hits the frozen pack of prior snow.
2.) Given the blowing and drifting, take many measurements and average (10-15 or even 20). This will help average the snowfall.
3.) The National Weather Service understands that it is very difficult to measure snow given prior storms and the conditions upcoming for the blizzard. All of the reports are appreciated and its understood that all volunteers are making a best effort.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely early Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors. The next coordination message will be issued by 11 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Winter Weather Graphics Page and NWS Gray Maine Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
NWS Taunton MA Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Winter Weather Graphics Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Gray ME Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box