Rob Macedo – Page 57

Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #2A – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

August 3, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Due to the severe weather event from this Sunday Afternoon/Evening August 2nd, the next complete Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message will be posted by 1230 PM Monday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation remains possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Afternoon and Evening 8/2/20 Severe Weather Potential

August 2, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening possibly extending into Eastern Connecticut, Central Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary risk..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded all of Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts to a slight risk of severe weather and has placed Central Massachusetts, Eastern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. Models have expanded the severe weather potential into this area along with Eastern New York. This severe weather potential has to do with a warm front moving through area and is not in association with Tropical Storm Isaias..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western and Central New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will push through Southern New England during Sunday and behind the warm front, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially reaching Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours and possibly as far east as Eastern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Central Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential include:

1.) How far north and east the warm front gets and at this time it could get far enough east to allow severe weather potential as far east as Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island
2.) How much clearing and destabilization builds into Western New England from Eastern New York behind the warm front and this could be the biggest question on how the severe weather potential evolves as we get to this afternoon and evening
3.) High-Resolution models had kept the better triggering and forcing south and west of Western New England but have at times brought some better forcing into Western New England and that was the trend in the models overnight which has caused SPC to expand the slight risk for severe weather further east and the marginal risk for severe weather into Central New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western and Central New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

August 2, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias is a tropical system approaching East Coastal Florida and should be closely monitored for impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. The type of impacts will depend on Isaias’ track toward the region as well as the speed of forward motion and the intensity of Isaias. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Isaias and look at early preparedness for the system understanding that impacts from this system remain in flux..
..The National Hurricane Center in Miami has placed all of Southern New England in the “cone of uncertainty” concerning impacts from the region from Tropical Storm Isaias and this necessitates the start of coordination messages for Isaias at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Tropical Storm Isaias is an 70 MPH tropical storm approaching and affecting East and Southeast Coastal Florida as of the 8 PM EDT Saturday Evening 8/1/20 advisory. The current track has a possible landfall or very close pass to Eastern Florida on Sunday and another potential landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on Monday. It is noted that there has been an eastward trend in the guidance overnight last night and then a slight westward trend in the guidance today but the guidance could move back further east, stay on the current track or continue its westward trend. The headlines depict the current thinking and the fact that all of Southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty regarding impacts from Isaias in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. Key factors on impacts from Isaias are as follows:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is forecast to strengthen overnight back into a hurricane Sunday Morning but then level off and potentially slowly weaken as it moves away from Florida Monday Morning. If Isaias is stronger, it could mean greater impacts and possibly less weakening over time and will bear watching. It is noted that Isasis’ appearance on satellite imagery has been looking better at the time of this coordination message posting.
2.) The track of Isaias is about the same as last night’s coordination message except it will remain a close call on whether a landfall in Florida will occur. The current track implies more land being scrapped as it makes it way up the coast but also intervals where its out over water. Models still show a reasonably strong system affecting the area, potentially as a moderate tropical storm. If it tracks over less coast line, a high end tropical storm or possibly even stronger system would be possible though this is a less likely scenario. If it scrapes even more land or is further west, less impacts would affect the region. The track guidance should gain better agreement over the next 24-36 hours.
3.) The speed of forward motion of Isaias and models are conflicted in how quickly Isaias makes its way up to New England with some models showing the classic acceleration of a tropical system as it makes its way up here while other models show a slower approach. This will be known over future model runs in the next day or two. It is noted the approach of Isaias is a bit slower than some models indicated last night with impacts in the late Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning timeframe as a rough estimate.

Now is the time to consider preparations for a tropical system possibly affecting the region. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday PM and Evening 8/2/20 Severe Weather Potential

August 1, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are Possible in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a Marginal to Slight risk for severe weather. It is noted the best threat for severe weather is in parts of Eastern-Central New York State but severe weather could affect portions of Western New England Sunday afternoon and evening. This severe weather potential has to do with a warm front moving through area and is not in association with Tropical Storm Isaias..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will push through Southern New England during Sunday and behind the warm front, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially reaching Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential include:

1.) How far north and east the warm front gets
2.) How much clearing and destabilization builds into Western New England from Eastern New York behind the warm front
3.) High-Resolution models keep the better triggering and forcing south and west of Western New England but have at times brought some better forcing into Western New England. If this can get further north and east into Southern New England, it would increase the severe weather potential for Western New England but if it hangs back into New York there will be isolated or no coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in Western New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Sunday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200801_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Hurricane Isaias Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Potential Impacts

August 1, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Isaias is a tropical system approaching and over the Bahama Islands and should be closely monitored for impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. The type of impacts will depend on Isaias’ track toward the region as well as the speed of forward motion and the intensity of Isaias. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Isaias and look at early preparedness for the system understanding that impacts from this system remain in flux..
..The National Hurricane Center in Miami has placed all of Southern New England in the “cone of uncertainty” concerning impacts from the region from Hurricane Isasis and this necessitates the start of coordination messages for Isasis at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through early Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isasis. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isasis and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Hurricane Isaias is an 80 MPH Category-1 hurricane approaching and affecting the Bahamas as of the 8 PM EDT Friday Evening 7/31/20 advisory. The current track has a possible landfall in Eastern Florida on Sunday and another potential landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on Monday. It is noted that there has been a westward trend in the guidance today but the guidance could move back further east, stay on the current track or continue its westward trend. The headlines depict the current thinking and the fact that all of Southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty regarding impacts from Isasis in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. Key factors on impacts from Isasis are as follows:

1.) The intensity of Isasis as Isasis is forecast to strengthen overnight into Saturday Morning but then level off and potentially slowly weaken on approach to Florida Sunday. If Isasis is stronger, it could mean greater impacts and possibly less weakening over time and will bear watching.
2.) The track of Isasis as the track has trended further west today implying more land being scrapped as it makes it way up the coast which would still mean a reasonably strong system affecting the area but possibly in a post tropical system form. If it tracks over less coast line, a tropical storm or possibly even stronger system would be possible. The track guidance should gain better agreement over the next 24-48 hours.
3.) The speed of forward motion of Isasis and models are conflicted in how quickly Isasis makes its way up to New England with some models showing the classic acceleration of a tropical system as it makes its way up here while other models show a slower approach. This will be known over future model runs in the next day or two.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through early Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isasis. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isasis and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Another coordination message on Isasis will be posted by 1030 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/30/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 30, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening to all of Southern New England except for Nantucket Island. Threat timeframe is roughly between 12-9 PM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Last night featured a couple unexpected isolated severe thunderstorms. These storms produced up to 3/4″ hail in Holyoke and Belchertown with unknown size hail reported in Palmer. The Local Storm Reports from last night’s severe weather are listed below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007301255.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007301251.nwus51.html

For today, a cold front will make its way into Southern New England on Thursday. A change from yesterday is that the marginal risk area has been expanded to northern and western parts of Southern New England through areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts are favored for the severe weather potential today. Key factors on the severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) Cloud cover was a concern based on prior model runs but satellite imagery shows good clearing allowing for strong heating and destabilization. Some high cloud cover in Connecticut and Rhode Island due not appear to be reducing the potential for strong instability and destabilization. Wind shear profiles are sufficient for severe weather potential.
2.) Amount of moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as if it dries out too quickly, this would not allow updrafts to reach strong to severe levels. This appears to be the main player in determining the extent of any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening.This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/30/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 29, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across areas of Southern New England essentially along and south of the Route 2 area for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area roughly along and south of the Route 2 area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening roughly between 12-6 PM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will make its way into Southern New England on Thursday and will be draped over parts of Southern New England Thursday as we get into early to mid afternoon. Key factor on the severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) The amount of cloud cover over the region and the earlier timing of the cold front. Models are divergent in how much instability will be available given the timing of the cold front and cloud cover associated with the cold front and low clouds and fog that may exist in Southeast New England. It is noted wind shear would be sufficient for severe weather development if enough instability is available. The risk area favors areas along and south of Route 2 and from about I-91 east and southeast extending into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts depending on whether Southeast New England can burn off the fog and the marine based low level clouds.
2.) Amount of moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as if it dries out too quickly, this would not allow updrafts to reach strong to severe levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200729_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Heat Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 7/28/20 Severe Weather and Heat Potential

July 28, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity Across the Region through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for Rhode Island except for Block Island and Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Southeast Massachusetts until 8 PM tonight for heat indices up to 105. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Block Island, Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Franklin County Massachusetts for heat indices of 100 degrees. Anyone in the excessive heat warning and heat advisory areas in particular but any part of Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and avoid overexertion in the heat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night..

Intense heat and humidity will be in place across Southern New England through Tuesday Evening and Rhode Island and Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts have been upgraded to excessive heat warnings with heat advisories remaining in effect for much of the rest of Southern New England through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking which is little changes since yesterday. Key factors in the severe weather potential include:

1.) The timing of the cold front and that there is sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the front. The heating and destabilization will be greatest in central and Eastern New England but western areas should monitor.
2.) Sufficient wind shear and at least some level of cooling overlapping with the front and enough instability to overcome less favorable factors for severe weather in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat and severe weather potential, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics (Heat first link and Severe Weather Potential second link):
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3154300704664279/?type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3153550868072596/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Heat Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/28/20 Heat and Severe Weather Potential

July 28, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity Across the Region through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Block Island, Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Franklin County Massachusetts for heat indices of 99-100 degrees. Anyone in the heat advisory area in particular but any part of Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and avoid overexertion in the heat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night..

Intense heat and humidity will be in place across Southern New England through Tuesday Evening and heat advisories remain in effect for much of Southern New England through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors in the severe weather potential include:

1.) The timing of the cold front and that there is sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the front. Given very warm low temperatures and at least some level of sunshine ahead of the front, even a late morning to mid afternoon timeframe for frontal passage as some models show versus Tuesday early to mid afternoon to evening will likely still allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Sufficient wind shear overlapping with the front and enough instability to overcome less favorable factors for severe weather in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3152067648220918/3152065598221123/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200727_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Heat and Severe Weather Cooordination Message #1 – Monday 7/27/20-Tueday 7/28/20 Excessive Heat Potential and Tuesday 7/28/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 27, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity Across the Region Monday into Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and for Much of Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands and parts of Northwest Massachusetts. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM tonight for Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties. Heat indices between 98 to 100 degrees with isolated higher heat indices are likely in the heat advisory areas. Anyone in any part of Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and avoid overexertion in the heat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. A more complete coordination message focused more on the severe weather potential will be posted by 1030 PM Monday Evening. Below is the Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3150865681674448/3150864041674612/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,