Hello to all…

..Strong Winds today for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area will lead to a moderate to possibly heavy snowstorm particularly for Southeast New England with other areas south of the Mass Pike impacted..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 400 PM Thursday Afternoon for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH with the strongest gusts in the higher elevations. These winds may be sufficient to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 1 AM to 4 PM Friday for Cape Cod and the Islands for 6-8″ of snow and significant impact to the morning commute..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from late tonight through Friday Afternoon for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island for 4-7″ of snow with higher amounts and the highest amounts over south coastal areas and significant impact to the morning commute..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to Noon Friday for Northern Connecticut and Norfolk County Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow with impacts to the morning commute expected..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds for today and the winter storm for Friday for snowfall reports..

The weather pattern will turn active and will be a return to winter for the region over the next few days. Starting with today, strong winds today have resulted in a Wind Advisory for the NWS Taunton coverage area with a Wind Advisory in effect for the region through 400 PM for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH and isolated pockets of tree and wire damage potential.

Attention turns to a winter storm for the region overnight through Friday Afternoon and the headlines of this message reflect current thinking. Key items for this storm event include:

1.) Model trends have been stronger and a bit further north with this winter storm. If this trend continues, snowfall amounts could be bumped higher and also further north in the region.
2.) The highest likelihood for the heaviest snowfall is over the South Coast and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is currently expected to remain the case for this storm.
3.) A sharp cutoff in the accumulating snow versus little to no snow and between the accumulating snow and the heavier snow bands is likely with this system.

It will then become bitterly cold later Friday Night into Saturday with a cold air mass remaining in place through much of next week. Long range models are depicting the potential for a significant coastal storm for the middle of next week but it is too early to get into any details and outcomes could change significantly between now and the middle of next week.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds for today and the winter storm for Friday for snowfall reports. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..A return to winter with a possible moderate winter storm particularly for South Coastal Massachusetts and other parts of Southeast New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 4-7″ of snow. Areas closest to the Winter Storm Watch area may require Winter Weather Advisories as we get closer to the storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Friday for snowfall reports. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics..

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Snow Squalls are possible late this afternoon and tonight across parts of Southern New England. While snow accumulations will likely be 1″ or less and not all locations will see snow squalls, the squalls could result in quickly reduced visibilities and hazardous road conditions in areas that receive them. There is an outside chance of more persistent snow squalls in the region with slightly higher snow accumulations but this is low probability at this time. This is associated with an arctic cold front which will bring bitterly cold temperatures that we have not seen for several weeks into the region. Wind gusts to 40 MPH may occur but will be nowhere near what we had Thursday..
..Any damage photos or video from yesterday’s wind event can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook or Twitter feed or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the photos or video unless otherwise indicated. A Facebook photo album will be built up later today or this weekend.
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the snow squall potential for late this afternoon and tonight. This will likely be the only update on the snow squall and arctic cold potential unless time allows and a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook on the snow squall and arctic cold potential and links to information on the damaging wind reports from yesterday..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Post Thursday 3/2/17 Wind Damage Event Report Information:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Thursday Wind Damage Events:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1703022354.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Thursday Wind Measurement Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1703030324.nous41.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_3_2_17.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Fine line of convective showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce strong to damaging winds with strong to damaging winds behind the cold front during the overnight/early morning hours Thursday through early Thursday Evening..
..A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from 1 AM to 7 PM Thursday for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH likely. These winds will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the fine line of convective showers and isolated thunderstorms and the strong to damaging winds with that convective line and behind the cold front..

At 1110 PM, Doppler Radar showed a convective low-topped line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front. Along and behind the cold front strong to damaging winds will occur and will last through Thursday Afternoon and early evening. The Wind Advisories for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings with the potential for winds gusts as high as 60 MPH in the coverage area and extended period of wind gusts in the 50-60 MPH. These winds are likely to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Rochester New York gusted to 64 MPH earlier Wednesday Evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the fine line of convective showers and isolated thunderstorms and the strong to damaging winds with that convective line and behind the cold front overnight through early Thursday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on this event unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region. It is noted that the severe weather threat could remain southwest of our area but there is still enough factors where we need to remain vigilant on severe weather potential in portions of Southern New England particularly southwest parts of our coverage area..
..Strong Winds are expected during the day Thursday behind the strong cold front. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area from 1 AM to 7 PM Thursday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts to 55 MPH likely. These winds may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. SKYWARN self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential for Thursday..

In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Looking at radar and other trends, there is the possibility that this activity could remain southwest of our coverage area but there remains enough parameters where we need to remain vigilant for any severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:

1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms and low clouds over the region Wednesday Morning into early afternoon not allowing for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.
3.) The showers and any thunderstorms earlier in the day swings through and the strongest activity and severe weather parameters remain southwest of the area.

Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will still bear watching. The timing of the severe weather is also rather problematic. There could be activity as early as midday but its more likely to be a later afternoon and evening event if activity can get move into our coverage area and tap the strong winds and the remaining favorable parameters.

Behind the cold front, strong winds are likely and a Wind Advisory is posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated wind gusts to 55 MPH possible. These winds will likely be strong enough to produce isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. SKYWARN self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential for Thursday. This will be the last coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Another coordination message on the strong winds for Thursday will be posted either by late Wednesday Evening or Thursday Morning depending on Wednesday’s severe weather potential being realized. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential..

In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:

1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday Morning do not allow for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.

Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170228_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..First tornado on historical record in the commonwealth of Massachusetts in the month of February. An EF1 Tornado touched down briefly in Goshen, Massachusetts and more significantly and violently in the town of Conway, Massachusetts between 720 and 730 PM Saturday Evening 2/25/17. Many trees and wires were downed, some into homes and buildings with roof and wall damage to several homes in the town of Conway Massachusetts. Additional straight-line wind damage was done in other parts of Franklin County Massachusetts from the severe thunderstorms as they moved through the area and prior to reaching the Goshen and Conway Massachusetts area in Berkshire County Massachusetts..
..Real-time damage reports from SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators helped discern initial damage assessment followed by additional reports and photos during the day with structural damage to homes and 2 barn collapses (one of which reported in near real-time the Saturday Evening the tornado went through Conway Massachusetts). The center of the town of Conway was inaccessible for a time last night from the damage. Coordination by volunteer SKYWARN Spotters/Amateur Radio Operators, local police and fire departments, state emergency management and NWS Taunton meteorologists led to superb situational awareness and disaster intelligence gathering with the volunteer-professional partnership between groups and agencies..
..Any additional damage photos or accounts of this severe weather event and first ever recorded tornado in the commonwealth of Massachusetts in the month of February can be sent as reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the pics@nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for their photo or information  unless otherwise noted. This will likely be the only post severe weather coordination message on this event, unless time allows and a significant change to the event’s historical record is noted. Below is the WX1BOX Facebook Album of photos from various contributors including the NWS Taunton Storm Survey team, the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement and Local Storm Report for this event as well as the raw Amateur Radio log of this severe weather event..

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1470398782994135

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in Goshen and Conway Massachusetts
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_2_25_17_Ef1_tornado_conway_ma.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_2_25_17_Ef1_tornado_conway_ma.txt

Amateur Radio Raw Log of Reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_raw_log_2_25_17.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..The record warmth of the past few days will come to an end as a strong cold front will move through the area bringing convective showers and possibly even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat particularly in the Connecticut Valley Region of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Just to the west, a slight risk of severe weather covers much of Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey through the mid-atlantic states..
..On Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday..

An unusual February setup for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms particularly over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as a strong cold front will bring an end to the record warmth for the region. This is a setup where there will be strong winds aloft for convection to tap into but instability levels will be relatively low and a scenario where convection will need to become organized enough with limited instability to bring the stronger winds down to the surface. While the greatest threat for severe weather will be over Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and into Eastern New York, a conditional severe thunderstorm threat exists over portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley region west. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current setup well. Any convective line of showers and thunderstorms that forms is likely to weaken as it moves east due to limited instability as well as the marine influence as the line gets into central and eastern New England, closer to the coastal areas with southerly winds causing the marine influence to be prevalent further east as the cold front approaches. Behind the cold front as we get into Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday. This will be the only coordination message on the Saturday severe weather potential unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Another coordination message will be posted on the strong winds for Sunday only if a Wind Advisory is issued. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Very tough forecast for snowfall amounts in Eastern Massachusetts. Storm low formation further south than expected and that could mean more widespread and heavier snowfall in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Uncertainty remains higher than normal..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Essex County Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over Essex County. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Central and Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 1-3″ of snow and snow potentially affecting the morning commute. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over some or all of this advisory area. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..Strong Winds are possible over the Cape and Islands on Thursday. These strong winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with slightly higher gusts are possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning..

A very tricky storm system for tonight into Thursday Morning leads to higher than normal uncertainty on snowfall amounts and the potential for a sharp cutoff between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow. A low pressure system has formed further south than modeled from near and to the east of Nantucket sound. This has resulted in a precipitation shield over Eastern Massachusetts with rain changing to snow with the heaviest precipitation across Essex, Eastern Middlesex, Eastern Norfolk, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts. The key factors for this storm event is whether the precipitation will persist over these areas or if it will slide steady eastward and how heavy the precipitation is. Models have wide solutions here even though this event is unfolding and does not have a good handle of how the low pressure system has formed over Southeast New England. At the time of this coordination message, rain is changing to snow from west to east within the precipitation area. There is the potential for a large variance in snowfall in the advisory area and the potential for some/all areas to receive either much higher or much lower than current forecasted snow amounts based on the persistence of the snow bands and whether they maintain themselves over the area for a sufficient period of time.

There is also the risk for some strong winds on Thursday. At this time, these winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with some slightly higher gusts are possible.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning. This will most likely be the last coordination message on this system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..A storm system looks to impact portions of Maine and New Hampshire with the possibility of impacts in the North Shore of Massachusetts and the possibility to a lesser extent of impacts in other parts of Northern Massachusetts..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Essex County Massachusetts from 7 PM this Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning for 4-6″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet clinging to trees and power lines so if these amounts occur, isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages could occur. Other parts of Northern Massachusetts could see advisory level snowfall. The forecast is lower confidence despite being a short-term forecast as just a small track error of 25-50 miles can be the difference of heavier snowfall in northern portions of our area versus a lighter snowfall..
..Wind Advisories maybe requires for portions of Cape Cod and the Islands Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday. A more complete coordination message will follow by 11 PM Wednesday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics..

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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