Hello to all…

..Hurricane Matthew causing significant damage and flooding in Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas after causing severe damage in portions of Haiti, particularly southern and western areas and portions of the Dominican Republic in southern areas. Next in line for a potential significant strike are portions of eastern Florida, and Southeast Georgia possibly extending into South Carolina between Thursday and Saturday. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active for the next several days relaying reports on conditions from Hurricane Matthew along his path..
..Hurricane Matthew’s impacts on Southern New England are no longer expected at least through the next 5 days and the Columbus Day Weekend no longer looks to be directly impacted by Matthew though some rain may occur over part of the weekend relating to a front moving through the region. Models have shifted the track of Matthew well to the south of the region at least through the next 5 day period..
..No SKYWARN Activation in association with Hurricane Matthew is expected in Southern New England through Monday and this will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Matthew unless a potential threat to Southern New England redevelops..

Hurricane Matthew has caused significant damage and flooding in Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas and across southwest and southern portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. From there, impacts to Florida, Southeast Georgia and possibly extending into South Carolina between Thursday and Saturday with Matthew potentially reintensifying to category-IV intensity. The track of Hurricane Matthew and how close it gets to the Southeast US coast will determine whether hurricane force conditions occur over these coastal areas or stay just offshore. At this time, its anticipated for hurricane force conditions to reach at least portions of the Southeast US coast especially in the Hurricane Warning area and potentially in the Hurricane Watch areas. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active over the next several days. Links to their web sites follow below:

Hurricane Watch Net – HWN:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net – VoIPWXNet:
http://www.voipwx.net

Over the past several model cycles, the threat for Southern New England has diminished greatly especially over the 5 day period. Models now depict after a front moves through the region that will not be strong enough to bring Matthew northward or northeastward, blocking high pressure will develop keeping Matthew contained along and off of the Southeast US coast over this period. With the reduced risk to Southern New England, this will likely be the last coordination message on Hurricane Matthew from a Southern New England perspective unless a potential threat for Matthew materializes again.

We do encourage SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who know other Amateur Radio Operators, SKYWARN Spotters or friends and family from the affected areas of Hurricane Matthew from the east coast of Florida through Southeast Georgia and South Carolina to gather reports, pictures and videos from this area. This information can be shared with the National Hurricane Center, media outlets and the local NWS Forecast offices of their given areas as needed. This information and pictures can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via pics@nsradio.org.

While Hurricane Matthew’s threat at least through the 5 day period no longer exists, we encourage folks to continue to the monitor the track of Hurricane Matthew. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory and Information graphics link and the NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

This will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Matthew from a Southern New England perspective unless a threat from Matthew for Southern New England redevelops.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Hurricane Matthew causing significant damage and flooding in portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas are next in line for a potential significant strike followed by the potential for tropical storm to possibly hurricane force conditions over parts of the Southeast United States coast from Florida to North Carolina later this week. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active for the next several days relaying reports on conditions from Hurricane Matthew along his path..
..Hurricane Matthew’s impacts on Southern New England remain highly uncertain with impacts ranging from little to no significant direct impact to a direct strike on the region. We are still 5 to 6 days from any impacts from Hurricane Matthew with any impacts to the region not expected until the Columbus Day weekend. Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Matthew now that he is entering the Bahama Island region. Keep your situational awareness high by monitoring National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecasts and information, these coordination messages, satellite and radar imagery on Hurricane Matthew and conventional media outlets..
..Any SKYWARN Activation status for the Columbus Day Weekend will be determined as we get closer to this weekend. ARES/RACES groups should seek guidance from local leadership and monitor the progress of Hurricane Matthew..

Hurricane Matthew has caused significant damage across portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is taking aim on Eastern Cuba and the Bahama islands for tonight into Wednesday. From there, impacts to Florida could occur on Thursday and then to South and North Carolina on Friday into Saturday. It is not clear at this time how close Matthew will get to the Southeast US coast. In the longer range, it remains uncertain how close Matthew will get to the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States coast. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active over the next several days. Links to their web sites follow below:

Hurricane Watch Net – HWN:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net – VoIPWXNet:
http://www.voipwx.net

Model guidance remains divergent with a wide spread and varying solutions on what occurs with Matthew as he attempts to make his way up the US East coast. In addition, model solutions have had a wide run to run variance especially regarding the longer range period between 4-6 days and how close Matthew gets to Southern New England. It is also not clear what kind of intensity Matthew will have depending on any land interaction as it approaches the Southeast US coast. It is premature to say with any precision how close Matthew will get to the region and how strong it would be. There is slightly higher confidence in the potential for beneficial rainfall between the trough that approaches the region and its potentially ability to tap the tropical moisture feed from Matthew for this weekend. Even there though, its quite difficult to determine what rainfall amounts will be this far out in advance. As we get closer to this weekend and Matthew tracks through the Bahamas and towards the Southeast US coast, confidence should increase on how close Matthew gets to the region and on what impacts, direct or indirect, Matthew will have on the region.

At this time, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Matthew and begin thinking about some low level of preparations. With the holiday weekend coming up this weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Matthew during this period. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Matthew are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system or major winter system as we get into the winter season gets close or impacts the region.

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory and Information graphics link and the NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

There are a couple of SKYWARN and weather related items that we would like to announce and request on an off topic basis for Amateur Radio Operator support for a public service event.

The first item is that the Fall 2016 Edition of the Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter is now available. This can be seen at the following links:

NWS Taunton Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter Fall 2016 Edition:
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/prevailing_winds/2016_10_prevailing_winds.pdf

NWS Taunton Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter Fall 2016 Edition via WX1BOX Home Page:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/Iss6vol2_2016_10_prevailing_winds.pdf

Also, there is an archive of Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletters on the WX1BOX Home Page via the following link:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/3288

The Southern New England Weather Conference will take place Saturday October 29th, 2016. The conference will be held at the Johnson & Wales Radisson next to TF Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island. Some of the topics that will be covered in 2016 include:

-The 25th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob and the Perfect Storm, including a presentation from John Spillane (pictured top right), USAF Pararescueman who survived at sea after his rescue helicopter was forced to ditch while attempting a rescue.
-A look at Canada’s warning and response system to Hurricanes and Blizzards
-How Weather and Measurement impacts everything from self-driving vehicles to DeflateGate
-El Nino and how it impacted New England this past winter and spring

The tentative agenda for the Southern New England Weather Conference can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2016Agenda.shtml

Registration Fees:
Please note that registration will be stopped after 230 registrants!

Student/Teacher Early and Regular Registration (Today – Oct 19): $89
Regular Registration (Sept 15 – Oct 19): $99
Late Registration (Oct 20 – Oct 29 – at the conference site): $109 (on-line registration will not be available after Oct 19.)
Student/Teacher Late Registration (Oct 25): $99 (same rules as above)

To register by phone, contact the Blue Hill Observatory at 617-696-0562. Complete registration information can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

We hope to see many of you at the 2016 Southern New England Weather Conference!

Finally, the off topic Public Service Event request is for Amateur Radio Operators to support the Ashland Half Marathon in Ashland, Mass. Interested participants can contact K1MGY-Mark Richards at kmalittl1@gmail.com as Mark is organizing Amateur Radio communications for this public service event. Mark also supports SKYWARN on the 146.955-Westford repeater and we have added this request for Amateur Radio support to this announcement given Mark’s strong support of the SKYWARN program. We hope a few additional Amateur Radio Operators can assist with this event for this year.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

There have been 2 additional SKYWARN Classes schedules for the Fall season. Both will be taught by an Amateur Radio Coordinator. Details on the class can be seen via the following link:

WX1BOX SKYWARN Training Class Schedule link:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

Detailed Schedule info listed below:

Thursday September 29th, 2016 – 7-10 PM:
Whitman Police Department
20 Essex Street
Whitman, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. Email Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com

Saturday October 22nd, 2016 – 10 AM-1 PM:
Charlestown Police Department – Emergency Operations Center (EOC) room.
4901 Old Post Road
Charlestown, RI
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. Email Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com

These classes will also show on weather.gov/boston schedule link over the next several days. Please spread the word on these additional Fall 2016 SKYWARN Classes.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today as a brief return to heat and humidity will occur ahead of a strong cold front which will bring Fall weather into the region. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall potentially leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Marginal risk of severe weather for much of Southern New England. Timeframe for potential severe weather is between 2-8 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT..

Heat and humidity will return on Wednesday for one day ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through the region. Model forecasts are not much different than they were last night. Wind shear profiles will be sufficient of severe weather. Instability and moisture levels maybe sufficient to allow for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm episode. This is a typical high wind shear, low instability environment typical of the region transitioning to the fall weather season. The extent of any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development will be the level of moisture and instability that develops as the cold front approaches to tap into the strong wind shear provided by the front. SPC has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible tomorrow as a brief return to heat and humidity will occur ahead of a strong cold front which will bring Fall weather into the region. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall potentially leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Timeframe for potential severe weather is between 2-8 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will return on Wednesday for one day ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through the region. Wind shear profiles will be sufficient of severe weather. Instability and moisture levels maybe sufficient to allow for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm episode. This is a typical high wind shear, low instability environment typical of the region transitioning to the fall weather season. The extent of any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development will be the level of moisture and instability that develops as the cold front approaches with the strong wind shear provided by the front. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather for portions of Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160913_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today across much of Southern New England as a cold front sweeps through the area from west to east between now and 3 PM. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and brief urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. Wind Damage has already occurred in parts of Berkshire County Massachusetts from this line..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur for these strong to severe thunderstorms. Ops at NWS Taunton will be possible and could occur at anytime as the line moves through the area. This will be the only coordination message concerning this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1680.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine brought strong to damaging winds and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages to Southeast Massachusetts, East Coastal Massachusetts to the east of the I-95 corridor, South-Central Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut. Some beneficial rainfall was received ranging in the 0.10-1.00″ range with isolated higher amounts over Nantucket Island. Beach erosion and spotty coastal flooding occurred in Southeast New England with some boats run aground and knocked off moorings in more open water ways. Conditions were similar to some of our Fall or Spring nor’easter type systems..
..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine made its slow northward and northwestward movement and is now tracking slowly westward as it makes a loop to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the mid-atlantic states. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Thursday Morning before moving away from the region or even dissipating later Thursday into Friday Morning..
..The Tropical Storm Warning for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island has been cancelled. The strong to damaging wind threat has ended. Additional rainfall between 0.10-1″ is possible in Southeast New England. Any additional rainfall will be beneficial in nature..
..A High Surf Advisory is in effect for East and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands through 6 PM Tuesday. A high surf advisory could continue for the next couple days and remain a concern along with rip currents through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches through Thursday..
..Any post storm damage photos or coast line photos from Monday can be sent as a reply to this message, sent via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org and the pictures and information will be shared with local and state emergency management, non-governmental organizations and the media with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the information. Thanks to all who provided damage reports and criteria spotting information for Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine during the day on Monday..
..This will be the last Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message and last message regarding the continued high surf and rip current threat that will likely continue through Thursday of this week. A Hermine storm summary message will be posted once issued by NWS Taunton. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement, WX1BOX Facebook Album (which will be updated later today), Final Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NHC Advisory information on Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1609060239.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1609060308.nous41.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_5_16_hermine.txt

NWS Taunton WX1BOX Facebook Album for Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1283809994986349

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has now started its slow movement northward and is likely to start making its eventually turn northwestward at a slow speed later today and tonight with the possibility for slight intensification through this evening followed by slow weakening later Monday evening through Tuesday and more rapid weakening mid-week. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from now to Wednesday moving away from the region or even dissipating on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected to be strongest from 10 AM-8 PM Monday. There will then be a lull in the winds overnight Monday with another round of strong winds possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected tonight through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to upgrade to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area between Monday and Tuesday. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern tonight through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Hermine’s impacts for wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday..

Since the last coordination message Sunday Evening, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were last night. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands (Watch Hill Rhode Island through Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including the islands) for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds in the 10 AM-8 PM Monday timeframe with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm warning area between Monday and Tuesday. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine has slowed down and will move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a wide spread among them with two models closest to Southern New England. Other models are now bringing the system near or to the south of one of the closer model tracks to the south of Nantucket. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further west overnight. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Hermine’s impacts for wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday. Depending on storm evolution, another coordination message may be posted either by by 1130 PM Monday Evening or 900 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has slowed its east-northeast progression Sunday and is likely to start making its eventually turn and slow movement northward and northwestward later today and tonight with the possibility for slight intensification tonight into Monday followed by slow weakening later Monday evening through mid-week. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from now to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave late tonight after midnight through the mid to late afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected tonight through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to upgrade to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area between Monday and Tuesday. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern tonight through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late tonight through Monday Afternoon to monitor wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday..

Since the last coordination message Sunday Morning, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands (Watch Hill Rhode Island through Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including the islands) for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the late tonight into Monday afternoon timeframe with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm warning area between Monday and Tuesday. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a wide spread among them with two models closest to Southern New England. Other models are now bringing the system near or to the south of one of the closer model tracks to the south of Nantucket with none of the models indicating a direct hit to the mid-atlantic region. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further north and hasn’t moved much further east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late tonight through Monday Afternoon to monitor wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday. Depending on storm evolution, another coordination message may be posted either by 830 AM Monday Morning or by 1000 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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