Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 10/26/21-Wednesday 10/27/21 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Powerful coastal storm will have the potential for significant impacts of significant rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding to flash flooding across all of Southern New England, damaging winds across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and minor coastal flooding across multiple high tide cycles across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Afternoon for all of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds with fully leaved trees and heavy rainfall and wet conditions will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..Additional watches and warnings may be required as we get closer to this powerful coastal storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential for Tuesday into Wednesday..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather, a powerful coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) How close the coastal storm approaches. This will depict how far inland strong to damaging winds will occur and also if even stronger winds will occur in coastal areas if the storm track is closer.
2.) Heavy rainfall of 3-6″ with scattered higher amounts are likely across much of Southern New England. The axis of heaviest rain within the region will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm.
3.) While the tidal cycle is not astronomically high, the coastal storm track and slow speed of motion while intensifying could allow for multiple high tide cycles of coastal flooding. This will become better defined in future outlooks.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential Tuesday into Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion, Rainfall Map and Wind Gust Map:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Total_Rainfall.png

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Max_Wind_Gusts.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 10/16/21 Late Afternoon and Evening Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Convective showers with gusty winds and isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds is the primary threat with the secondary threats of heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding, hail and frequent lightning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather with a slight risk for severe weather in Berkshire County Mass to Litchfield and Fairfield Counties of Connecticut for Saturday late afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening..

A strong cold front will be moving through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and evening with the potential of convective showers with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat. The headlines depict the current thinking which shows a slight risk upgrade to areas just west of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area. Key factors remain:

1.) Instability will be very limited but if instability is a bit more than forecast, it would increase the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms or stronger winds in convective showers.
2.) Wind profiles will be quite strong aloft with favorable jet dynamics and this can potentially compensate for very limited instability and allow for a period of strong to damaging winds with convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Late Afternoon & Evening 10/15/21 Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Convective showers with gusty winds and isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is possible across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds is the primary threat with the secondary threats of heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding, hail and frequent lightning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday late afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening..

A strong cold front will be moving through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and evening with the potential of convective showers with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Instability will be very limited but if instability is a bit more than forecast, it would increase the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms or stronger winds in convective showers.
2.) Wind profiles will be quite strong aloft with favorable jet dynamics and this can potentially compensate for very limited instability and allow for a period of strong to damaging winds with convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20211015_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather & Flash Flood Coordination Message #1 – Overnight Thursday Night 9/23/21-Friday Evening 9/24/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England anytime after 4 AM Friday through 12 PM in Western New England with this potential moving eastward into Eastern New England after 12 PM..
..Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Midnight tonight through Friday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County of Connecticut for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts causing flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly some small rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential overnight into early Friday Evening..

A slow moving cold front will push its way through Southern New England overnight through Friday Evening. Warm and humid conditions are out ahead of this cold front. This will set the stage possible localized flash flooding and severe weather potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Ability of forcing along the cold front and sufficient wind shear values to compensate for limited instability to allow for heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) If more instability is generated than expected, that would potentially increase the severe weather potential in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential overnight into early Friday Evening. This is likely to be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210923_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Afternoon and Evening 9/15/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..A Strong cold front will move through Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning bringing the potential for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening anytime after 3 PM through midnight particularly over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut though areas as far east as the I-95 corridor of Southern New England should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with a slight expansion into Hartford CT to Worcester Mass. in a slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England along, north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of potential severe weather is expected for Southern New England this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front and strong dynamics into the region. This looks most favorable for the locations in a slight risk area for severe weather and particularly western and northern Massachusetts.
2.) How far south and east the severe weather potential extends pending on the timing of the cold front, forcing along the front as it moves southeast and the location of the strongest wind shear levels.
3.) The overall intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms as if conditions line up and overlap favorably, this could be a fairly widespread severe weather event with fairly numerous pockets of wind damage in particular over the slight risk area of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. There is also a chance the most significant severe weather could stay further north into Northern New England with more isolated severe thunderstorms in Western and Northern Massachusetts and this will be watched through the day though current trends are shifting the potential slightly further south and east hence the expansion of the slight risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Night 9/14/21 & Wednesday Afternoon-Wednesday Night 9/15/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..A Strong cold front will move through Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning bringing the potential for severe weather conditionally Tuesday Night with the focus and more potent severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening anytime after 3 PM through midnight particularly over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut though areas as far east as the I-95 corridor of Southern New England should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..A conditional threat for Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is possible overnight Tuesday after midnight through 6 AM across Western and Northern Massachusetts..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday and the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England along, north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of potential severe weather is expected for Southern New England. The severe weather potential overnight Tuesday Evening is very conditional and low risk but will need monitoring and will hinge on favorable instability and wind shear parameters and whether there is enough moisture or a trigger for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

A more significant and potent severe weather event is likely for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and the headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front and strong dynamics into the region. This looks most favorable for the locations in a slight risk area for severe weather and particularly western and northern Massachusetts.
2.) How far south and east the severe weather potential extends pending on the timing of the cold front and the location of the strongest wind shear levels.
3.) The overall intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms as if conditions line up and overlap favorably, this could be a fairly widespread severe weather event with fairly numerous pockets of wind damage in particular over the slight risk area of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210914_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Evening 9/12/21-Monday Morning 9/13/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Evening into early Monday Morning. There could be two rounds one during roughly between 4-8 PM Sunday Evening though this is more conditional and less likely than a second potentially more potent round between 10 PM Sunday Evening-6 AM EDT Monday Morning. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday Night into Monday Morning and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in the same areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning..

A front will move across Southern New England Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Typically, this unfavorable timing would not support severe thunderstorm development but due to strong shear, dynamics and lift from the front, there is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The instability levels and whether those levels are sufficient combined with strong wind shear and jet dynamics for severe weather potential.
2.) Whether severe thunderstorms in Central and Eastern New York presuming they develop as expected starting out in Michigan and Western New York will maintain their intensity as they move into Southern New England.
3.) The earlier Sunday Evening threat is more conditional as there would be sufficient shear and instability but a lack of strong trigger in the atmosphere means that no thunderstorms form during the first half of Sunday Evening but if something were to form, it could go severe rapidly. Models differ on whether a few rapidly developing strong to severe thunderstorms occur or if there is no activity. Later at night, there will be the trigger and wind shear but instability will be in question with a lack of heating but an “elevated mixed layer” may allow for better instability offsetting lack of heating creating better severe weather potential overnight than normal for the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Evening 9/12/21-Monday Morning 9/13/21

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Evening into early Monday Morning. There could be two rounds one during roughly 6-10 PM Sunday Evening timeframe and a second potentially more potent round between 12 AM-6 AM EDT Monday Morning. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday Night into Monday Morning and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning..

A front will move across Southern New England Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Typically, this unfavorable timing would not support severe thunderstorm development but due to strong shear, dynamics and lift from the front, there is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The instability levels and whether those levels are sufficient combined with strong wind shear and jet dynamics for severe weather potential.
2.) Whether severe thunderstorms in Central and Eastern New York presuming they develop as expected will maintain their intensity as they move into Southern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210911_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 9/8/21-Thursday Evening 9/9/21 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in three rounds across Southern New England, one during the Wednesday Evening timeframe, another round possible Thursday Morning and a final round Thursday Afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and steam flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the Marginal Risk for severe weather to include Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut, and much of interior Rhode Island for tonight into Thursday Morning with a slight risk for severe weather further west into Eastern New York..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday..
..Hurricane Larry will track well east of New England but could bring the risk for swells, rip currents and dangerous surf conditions along coastal beach areas of Southern New England later this week and this weekend and anyone going to coastal areas should avoid the rocks etc and be careful swimming in any coastal area beaches..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Evening through Thursday Evening..

A strong cold front will slowly work its way through Southern New England late Wednesday Night through Thursday Evening. This cold front will bring with it the potential for some severe weather and flooding issues to portions of Southern New England. This cold front is what will keep Hurricane Larry well offshore of Southern New England but swells, rip currents and waves from Larry will affect coastal areas of Southern New England late this week and this weekend so any beachgoers going to area beaches should use caution going into the ocean waters. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front through Southern New England and whether there is sufficient instability or sufficient jet dynamics to overcome marginal instability to allow for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.
2.) The potential for any training of thunderstorms to allow for potential flooding issues in parts of Southern New England. While the rainfall will be nowhere near the magnitude of the remnants of Ida, the recent rainfall and the potential for 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts may cause renewed flood potential over portions of the area.
3.) It remains unclear particularly for Eastern New England whether the greatest potential for severe weather will occur Thursday Morning or more towards afternoon and evening. This will depend on how any shower and thunderstorm activity forms, what areas it affects and as we get into Thursday any sunshine that may allow for higher levels of instability. These aspects will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Evening. Where the severe weather and flood potential could occur anytime in the Wednesday Evening to Thursday Evening timeframe, this will likely be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update, Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks and WPC Day-1/Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210908_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Afternoon 9/8/21 Through Thursday Evening 9/9/21 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in three rounds across Southern New England, one during the late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening timeframe, another round possible Thursday Morning and a final round Thursday Afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and steam flooding..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather in portions of Eastern New York. Eastern New England areas should monitor particularly for the severe weather potential for Thursday..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted at 10 AM Wednesday with greater details on the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210907_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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