Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/25/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather anytime after 4 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for Sunday Afternoon and Evening as a warm front moves through Sunday Morning with the cold front sweeping into the area late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing after morning showers and possible embedded non-severe thunderstorms.
2.) Frontal position and timing to the area presuming sufficient clearing for destabilization.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210724_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/23/21 Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered Strong Thunderstorms with Isolated Severe Thunderstorms likely today particularly across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island for this Friday afternoon and early evening. Strong to isolated damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. An impulse in the atmosphere with cold temperatures aloft will allow for this development of scattered strong and isolated severe thunderstorms today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to isolated severe thunderstorm potential for this Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/21/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely between 1 PM-9 PM Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing areas along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather with areas north of the Mass Pike in a marginal risk. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas south of the Mass Pike, particularly Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts via their Mesoscale Convective Discussion..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

We are continuing to compile reports, pictures and videos from the last few days of severe weather and flash flooding. If time allows, a post severe weather and flash flood coordination message around the weather events this past weekend and potentially a summary of all the various events going back to the week off July 4th will be compiled and posted by the end of this week. It has been a very active month of July for areas from the Boston to Providence corridor north and west in the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.

Tuesday’s severe weather stayed north and west of Southern New England across Northeast New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Today’s severe weather potential is looking more robust particularly along and south of the Mass Pike across in Massachusetts as well as Connecticut and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for today include:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover from strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night into early Wednesday. As of 930 AM, plenty of sunshine is occurring in the slight risk area in the region.
2.) Timing of the cold front through the region Wednesday and whether it is timed with peak heating and instability. This timing looks to be verifying at this time.
3.) Level of sufficiently strong wind shear in the atmosphere as well as maintaining higher dewpoints in the slight risk area. At this time, both of these are occurring as expected.
4.) Much of interior Southern New England from roughly a Boston to Providence line has been very wet so even non-severe thunderstorms that contain heavy downpours could result in greater flooding impacts than normal in these areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message for Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement,  Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107211423.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1323.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Evening 7/20/21 & Wednesday PM/Evening 7/21/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible tonight between 6 PM-12 AM Tuesday Evening across Western Massachusetts with more widespread potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday Evening and much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Tuesday Evening and again Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

We are continuing to compile reports, pictures and videos from the last few days of severe weather and flash flooding. If time allows, a post severe weather and flash flood coordination message around the weather events this past weekend and potentially a summary of all the various events going back to the week off July 4th will be compiled and posted by the end of this week. It has been a very active month of July for areas from the Boston to Providence corridor north and west in the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.

Two more rounds of severe weather potential for the region starting this Tuesday Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Western Massachusetts from the Berkshires through Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester Counties. The Key factors on the Tuesday severe weather potential is as follows:

1.) The overlap of strongest instability and shear is not in sync with one another but if more instability lingers overnight or shear can compensate for lowering instability, strong to severe thunderstorms would become more likely for Tuesday Evening.
2.) The timing of the impulse and front approaching Southern New England and how that affects coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in this area.
3.) Western Massachusetts has been extremely wet throughout the last few days and weeks so even non-severe thunderstorms that contain heavy downpours could result in greater flooding impacts than normal in this area.

As we get into Wednesday, the coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be wider across Southern New England as a cold front brings an end to the heat and humidity and will finally allow for a longer period of drier weather for at least Thursday and Friday in Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover from strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night into early Wednesday.
2.) Timing of the cold front through the region Wednesday and whether it is timed with peak heating and instability.
3.) Level of sufficiently strong wind shear in the atmosphere
4.) Similar to Tuesday’s potential, much of interior Southern New England from roughly a Boston to Providence line has been very wet so even non-severe thunderstorms that contain heavy downpours could result in greater flooding impacts than normal in these areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Tuesday Evening and again Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message for Tuesday’s severe weather potential. Given operations may be needed for severe weather and flood potential Tuesday Evening, the next coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will likely by 11 AM Wednesday Morning unless time allows for an update sooner and there is a significant change to Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Afternoon and Evening 7/18/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Another round of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening across interior Southern New England. Severe Weather coverage will be a bit less than yesterday but flooding and flash flooding issues will be in pockets across Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and parts of North Central RI. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding are possible in thunderstorms..
..A Flash Flood Watch has been extended across Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Providence County Rhode Island through Sunday Evening for the potential of another 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts causing additional urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will again monitor for the severe weather, flood and flash flood potential this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Any additional rainfall reports, wind damage reports, pictures and videos of damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the report unless otherwise indicated..

Another active severe weather and significant flood/flash flood event affected portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island yesterday. The latest Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement from NWS Boston/Norton can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Any additional rainfall reports, wind damage reports, pictures and videos of damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the report unless otherwise indicated.

Another round of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall is likely later this Sunday Afternoon and Evening across portions of western and central New England. The severe weather threat appears to be less than Saturday, however, if more sunshine develops than expected, the severe weather potential would increase. Satellite imagery does show clearing across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and this area possibly into South-Central Massachusetts would be the primary severe weather potential area with the Flash Flood Watch area and areas close to that watch having the potential for pockets of flooding of rivers, streams, urban and poor drainage areas. Given the past 2-3 weeks of heavy rainfall and areas hard hit from yesterday’s severe weather and flooding, if the hardest hit areas yesterday are hit again, those areas could flood even more significantly and will be monitored carefully. The headlines depict the current thinking.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will again monitor for the severe weather, flood and flash flood potential. Again, any additional rainfall reports, wind damage reports, pictures and videos of damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the report unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message as we shift back into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flash Flood Watch Statement, Flood Warning and Flood Statement listings summary where you can choose to review those statements and the Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Warning Statements Listings:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/wgus41.chunk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Statement Listings:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/wgus81.chunk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/17/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely today centered over Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut possibly extending into interior Rhode Island later this Saturday Afternoon and Evening any time between 2-9 PM EDT Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage to flash flooding are all possible. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from 2 PM Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Heavy downpours in thunderstorms will result in 1-2″ of rainfall with locally higher amounts. This rainfall combined with the wet weather pattern of the last several weeks may result in urban and poor drainage flooding as well as river and stream flooding in these areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather and flood potential in the region for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of Southern New England Friday Afternoon into Evening. Any storm damage photos, pictures and videos, particularly from Northeast Massachusetts in the Topsfield/Boxford area and Northeast Connecticut particularly in the Thompson/Woodstock area which were the hardest hit areas can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org and the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report can be seen here:

NWS Boston Local Storm Report – Friday 7/16/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107171213.nwus51.html

Yet another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and interior Rhode Island for Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM EDT. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any leftover cloud cover affecting heating. At this time satellite imagery shows considerable breaks in the clouds but any showers and thunderstorms that form ahead of time of peak heating could affect the intensity of thunderstorms once we get near peak heating time.
2.) Wind shear is stronger than prior days but instability levels and timing will be key in the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. With the stronger wind shear, we’ll be monitoring for the potential of any supercells before the storms evolve into lines and then potentially train over the same areas and the situation becomes one with higher flood potential.
3.) Recent heavy rainfall has reduced flash flood guidance so less rainfall may cause flooding to occur more quickly particularly in flood prone urban and poor drainage areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather and flood potential in the region. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flash Flood Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday Afternoon and Evening 7/16/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across much of Southern New England where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed all of Southern New England except for the islands in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe for the severe weather potential is 1-9 PM EDT Friday..
..Intense heat and humidity has prompted NWS Boston/Norton to issue a Heat Advisory from 2-7 PM EDT Friday for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100 expected. People in the heat advisory area and across Southern New England should be careful not to overexert themselves if working outdoors, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned comfort wherever possible today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect the region Friday Afternoon and Evening with an impulse in the atmosphere near the time of peak heating to allow for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The headlines depict the current thinking which is little changed except for an expansion of the marginal risk of severe weather across much of Southern New England except for the islands and the issues of a Heat advisory for portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Key factors on severe weather potential remain as follows:

1.) Dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere and what role it plays in convection. It could enhance damaging wind potential if storms can develop but too much dry air could cap the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.
2.) The ability of intense heat and humidity to offset dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere along with the impulse atmosphere to be a sufficient trigger for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/16/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior Massachusetts and Northern Rhode Island along and north and west of a Boston to Providence line and through Northern Connecticut Friday Afternoon and Evening where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe for the severe weather potential is 1-9 PM EDT Friday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect the region Friday Afternoon and Evening with an impulse in the atmosphere near the time of peak heating to allow for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere and what role it plays in convection. It could enhance damaging wind potential if storms can develop but too much dry air could cap the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.
2.) The ability of intense heat and humidity to offset dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere along with the impulse atmosphere to be a sufficient trigger for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 11 AM EDT Friday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210715_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/14/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather with Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts from the Boston area north and west, much of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is now expected to be a bit later, between 3-10 PM EDT Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Conditions will become warm and humid on Wednesday as a warm front will swing through Southern New England. An impulse in the atmosphere will traverse the area near or shortly after the time of peak heating resulting in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. The headlines depict the current thinking which includes an upgrade to parts of the Western Massachusetts and Northwest CT into a slight risk for severe weather for today. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover in the morning as the warm front moves through resulting in less heating and destabilization in the area.
2.) The timing of the impulse swinging through the atmosphere as a later arrival would mean less of a threat for severe weather or it would be confined to western parts of the area whereas a bit faster timing could put areas even further east at the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/14/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Conditions will become warm and humid on Wednesday as a warm front will swing through Southern New England. An impulse in the atmosphere will traverse the area near or shortly after the time of peak heating resulting in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover in the morning as the warm front moves through resulting in less heating and destabilization in the area.
2.) The timing of the impulse swinging through the atmosphere as a later arrival would mean less of a threat for severe weather or it would be confined to western parts of the area whereas a bit faster timing could put areas even further east at the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Wednesday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210713_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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