Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 6th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night over portions of Southern New England particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeastern Massachusetts along and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed that region in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night..
During the 4th of July, areas of Southeastern New Hampshire into Northeastern Massachusetts did experience strong thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorms in Essex County Massachusetts with more widespread activity in New Hampshire and Maine as predicted. SKYWARN Self-Activation was utilized to handle the isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that affected parts of the region. The link below is to the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on the severe weather reports in Essex County Massachusetts from 7/4/11:
NWS Taunton 7/4/11 Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1107050009.nwus51.html
On Wednesday, we will continue to have hot and humid weather over the region. A cold front will drop down into Northern New England as we get into Wednesday Afternoon and early evening and will make its way into Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday. Models then diverge in terms of passing this cold front through Southern New England before stalling or having the front further west of the region as we get into Wednesday Night and Thursday. This could have some impact in how far south the severe weather threat extends for the late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night timeframe. At this time, its expected that the front will be close enough to the region for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm development extending as far south as Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts where a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms is highlighted by SPC. Areas to the south of the slight risk area away from the coast may also see an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm depending on the front position.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for severe weather. In terms of instability, some warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may initially inhibit development of storms and destablization but as the cold front approaches and we get towards evening, cooling of those mid-levels should occur sufficiently to allow for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms particularly in the SPC Slight Risk area.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM ET Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107051731.acus02.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night over portions of Southern New England particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeastern Massachusetts along and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed that region in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night..
During the 4th of July, areas of Southeastern New Hampshire into Northeastern Massachusetts did experience strong thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorms in Essex County Massachusetts with more widespread activity in New Hampshire and Maine as predicted. SKYWARN Self-Activation was utilized to handle the isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that affected parts of the region. The link below is to the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on the severe weather reports in Essex County Massachusetts from 7/4/11:
NWS Taunton 7/4/11 Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1107050009.nwus51.html
On Wednesday, we will continue to have hot and humid weather over the region. A cold front will drop down into Northern New England as we get into Wednesday Afternoon and early evening and will make its way into Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday. Models then diverge in terms of passing this cold front through Southern New England before stalling or having the front further west of the region as we get into Wednesday Night and Thursday. This could have some impact in how far south the severe weather threat extends for the late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night timeframe. At this time, its expected that the front will be close enough to the region for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm development extending as far south as Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts where a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms is highlighted by SPC. Areas to the south of the slight risk area away from the coast may also see an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm depending on the front position.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for severe weather. In terms of instability, some warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may initially inhibit development of storms and destablization but as the cold front approaches and we get towards evening, cooling of those mid-levels should occur sufficiently to allow for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms particularly in the SPC Slight Risk area.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM ET Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107051731.acus02.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org