Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 6th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over portions of Southern New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..A conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms exists in areas south and east of the slight risk area in interior Southern New England away from the coastal areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible anytime after 4 PM ET..
Severe weather threat for today is contingent on the position of a pre-frontal trough/cold front and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s over the region. Sunshine and heating through the day will occur which will start destablization of the atmosphere but it will be the winds shifting to the southwest and advecting higher humidity air and higher dewpoints and the position of the front as a trigger that will determine the scope of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the region. Wind shear profiles are expected to remain sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development if the front is close enough to the region and higher dewpoint air works its way into the region. The highest risk of this occurring is over Southern New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts where SPC has placed this area under a Slight Risk for severe weather. Areas south and east of the slight risk area will have a more conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe looks to be in the late afternoon and evening hours after 4 PM ET.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late this afternoon and evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over portions of Southern New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..A conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms exists in areas south and east of the slight risk area in interior Southern New England away from the coastal areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible anytime after 4 PM ET..
Severe weather threat for today is contingent on the position of a pre-frontal trough/cold front and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s over the region. Sunshine and heating through the day will occur which will start destablization of the atmosphere but it will be the winds shifting to the southwest and advecting higher humidity air and higher dewpoints and the position of the front as a trigger that will determine the scope of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the region. Wind shear profiles are expected to remain sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development if the front is close enough to the region and higher dewpoint air works its way into the region. The highest risk of this occurring is over Southern New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts where SPC has placed this area under a Slight Risk for severe weather. Areas south and east of the slight risk area will have a more conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe looks to be in the late afternoon and evening hours after 4 PM ET.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late this afternoon and evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org