Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday Evening 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12 Severe Weather Threats

May 28, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut anytime after 8 PM this evening possibly even extending to the Midnight timeframe and into the overnight hours of early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has extended the Slight Risk area further east for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue until any potential threat for the evening hours has ended or the threat for any activity has passed. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The complex in Central New York State fell apart entering the area and failed to fire off any new strong to severe thunderstorms. Models remain fairly insistent on increasing destablization and a possible subtle trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms via the warm front and possibly a complex of storms or Mesocale Convective System to organize somewhere in New York State and traverse into the region. The threat timeframe is after 8 PM and could potentially be as last as the Midnight timeframe into early Tuesday Morning. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat remains contingnent on the following:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex to organize depending on sufficient triggering otherwise the threat will be more isolated. There remains the possibility that the region will not be affected by severe weather overnight but the situation bears close watching due to certain favorable severe weather parameters.

As any possible severe weather wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. SPC has pushed the slight risk area further east into Southwest New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with NWS Taunton factoring in a risk for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe remains late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once any Monday severe weather threat has passed and the severe weather parameters of the atmosphere for Tuesday will be better understood.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue through late Monday Evening or early Tuesday Morning pending any severe weather threat materializing. A shortened coordination message will be posted when Ops for any activity Monday Evening/early Tuesday Morning is secured. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message for any severe weather Tuesday will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205281731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,