Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 5/29/12 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Overnight, nocturnal severe weather affected portions of Northeast New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Southern Maine, as lack of triggering over Southern New England and ridging over the area precluded severe weather over Southern New England and the NWS Taunton Coverage Area..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today over Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut this afternoon into tonight. Damaging Winds, large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather today over the region..
..Threat timeframe is most likely late this afternoon into Tuesday Evening but could start up as early as midday today as a cold front approaches the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely this Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..
At 700 AM, Doppler Radar showed isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Northeast New York, North-Central Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Southern Maine. This activity should remain north of the NWS Taunton coverage area through the morning hours. Radar also showed activity in Indiana, Ohio and over Lake Erie moving eastward. Satellite images showed clear skies over much of New York and West-Central Southern New England with low clouds over Eastern New England. The lack of a trigger and ridging over Southern New England precluded severe weather development despite a very unstable atmosphere overnight Monday. Also, better shear profiles remained north of Southern New England though shear over Southern New England would’ve been sufficient to produce severe weather if it we’re not for the lack of trigger and the ridging that was in place overnight in our region.
As we get into the day today, the ridging that forced the convection north of the area will breakdown as a cold front approaches. Ample heating and destablization will take place. The cold front will serve as a triggering mechanism and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should organize into a squall line or one or two short lines of storms and should organize further south across Central and Eastern New York and spread into Western and Central New England. The current timeframe for the NWS Taunton coverage area should be in the late afternoon and evening hours but could be as early as midday today. A couple of conditions on severe weather today will be the southwest flow over the area that may continue to force the most severe convection north of the NWS Taunton coverage area and the strongest shear will remain to the north though ample shear profiles will exist in the NWS Taunton coverage area.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely this afternoon and tonight. The exact timeframe will be determined later today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Overnight, nocturnal severe weather affected portions of Northeast New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Southern Maine, as lack of triggering over Southern New England and ridging over the area precluded severe weather over Southern New England and the NWS Taunton Coverage Area..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today over Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut this afternoon into tonight. Damaging Winds, large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather today over the region..
..Threat timeframe is most likely late this afternoon into Tuesday Evening but could start up as early as midday today as a cold front approaches the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely this Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..
At 700 AM, Doppler Radar showed isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Northeast New York, North-Central Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Southern Maine. This activity should remain north of the NWS Taunton coverage area through the morning hours. Radar also showed activity in Indiana, Ohio and over Lake Erie moving eastward. Satellite images showed clear skies over much of New York and West-Central Southern New England with low clouds over Eastern New England. The lack of a trigger and ridging over Southern New England precluded severe weather development despite a very unstable atmosphere overnight Monday. Also, better shear profiles remained north of Southern New England though shear over Southern New England would’ve been sufficient to produce severe weather if it we’re not for the lack of trigger and the ridging that was in place overnight in our region.
As we get into the day today, the ridging that forced the convection north of the area will breakdown as a cold front approaches. Ample heating and destablization will take place. The cold front will serve as a triggering mechanism and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should organize into a squall line or one or two short lines of storms and should organize further south across Central and Eastern New York and spread into Western and Central New England. The current timeframe for the NWS Taunton coverage area should be in the late afternoon and evening hours but could be as early as midday today. A couple of conditions on severe weather today will be the southwest flow over the area that may continue to force the most severe convection north of the NWS Taunton coverage area and the strongest shear will remain to the north though ample shear profiles will exist in the NWS Taunton coverage area.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely this afternoon and tonight. The exact timeframe will be determined later today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org