Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern still expected to be active Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Wednesday Evening in Western New England from Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and across much of Southern New England on Thursday. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. As we get into later Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continued to have a Slight Risk for severe weather over portions of Western New England for Wednesday and much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, the weather will turn active as we get into Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into the Saturday Morning timeframe. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front will be gradually approaching Southern New England from the west and will begin to affect our region Wednesday Evening. This will likely bring the first round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms starting in Western New England Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for severe weather across portions of Western New England for Wednesday. This area covers Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut.

As we get into Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. It is also unclear when this event will occur. This PRE event may not occur until Thursday Night into Friday.

Even without this event, the approaching cold front has the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday to much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday for much of Southern New England.

In terms of the exact track of Tropical Storm Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. It is also noted that model agreement on the track is not as strong as yesterday with some reliable models being much further offshore with Arthur while other models bring Arthur closer to Southern New England. In addition, the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England will likely take place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 4 days away. As the system organizes and continues its movement northward, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England should monitor the track of Tropical Storm Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. A shortened coordination message focused on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated for Wednesday. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
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Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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