Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Evening 7/18/15 & Sunday Evening 7/19/15-Eary Monday Morning 7/20/15 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur this Saturday Evening across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 530 and 10 PM this evening. Strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A more widespread and potentially significant severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday Night into early Monday Morning. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather and it is possible these risk areas could be expanded further east and upgraded as things evolve with a cold front and a potential complex of severe thunderstorms that will organize in New York State and spread east through the Sunday Evening and Sunday Night into early Monday Morning overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak..
After a few thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon moved through the area with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, clearing has taken place across much of Western New England with new thunderstorms organizing in New York State. Instability will be present given clearing over the area but wind shear is marginal. These conditions may allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from Eastern New York to move into Western New England before the loss of sunshine and daytime heating causes thunderstorms to weaken as they move east. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
For Sunday, intense heat and humidity will be across all of Southern New England. This will lead to high heat indices across much of Southern New England. The atmosphere will be capped during the day but as we get into the evening, cooling aloft will take place ahead of an approaching cold front with strong wind shear and high instability due to the intense heat of the day could lead to a potentially significant severe weather outbreak for Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday through early Monday Morning despite the timing being past the time of peak heating into the evening and overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather weather and there is the potential for the risk areas to shift further east and be upgraded further with a potential complex of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through the region followed by more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity as we get into the early morning Monday timeframe. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak. The next coordination message regarding the Sunday Evening and overnight hour severe weather potential will be issued by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150718_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur this Saturday Evening across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 530 and 10 PM this evening. Strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A more widespread and potentially significant severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday Night into early Monday Morning. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather and it is possible these risk areas could be expanded further east and upgraded as things evolve with a cold front and a potential complex of severe thunderstorms that will organize in New York State and spread east through the Sunday Evening and Sunday Night into early Monday Morning overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak..
After a few thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon moved through the area with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, clearing has taken place across much of Western New England with new thunderstorms organizing in New York State. Instability will be present given clearing over the area but wind shear is marginal. These conditions may allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from Eastern New York to move into Western New England before the loss of sunshine and daytime heating causes thunderstorms to weaken as they move east. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
For Sunday, intense heat and humidity will be across all of Southern New England. This will lead to high heat indices across much of Southern New England. The atmosphere will be capped during the day but as we get into the evening, cooling aloft will take place ahead of an approaching cold front with strong wind shear and high instability due to the intense heat of the day could lead to a potentially significant severe weather outbreak for Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday through early Monday Morning despite the timing being past the time of peak heating into the evening and overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather weather and there is the potential for the risk areas to shift further east and be upgraded further with a potential complex of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through the region followed by more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity as we get into the early morning Monday timeframe. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak. The next coordination message regarding the Sunday Evening and overnight hour severe weather potential will be issued by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150718_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box