Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Weekend Winter Storm
Hello to all..
..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for 3-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH with isolated higher gusts which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow across areas around the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide..
The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 630 PM. Models trends over the course of the day have been a bit further north into southern portions of Southern New England with heavier snowfall and areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island seeing the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The headlines of this coordination message reflect the latest thinking. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast but its noted that the spread in the models has decreased some as well which allows for less uncertainty. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.
Future model runs are hoped to provide further clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal though it has lessened since Friday Morning. Its hoped that the spread will continue to decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. One more coordination message will have more info and clarity on the storm situation before we move into Ops mode. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.936141886480183/936140693146969/?type=3&theater
NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
(508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for 3-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH with isolated higher gusts which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow across areas around the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide..
The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 630 PM. Models trends over the course of the day have been a bit further north into southern portions of Southern New England with heavier snowfall and areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island seeing the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The headlines of this coordination message reflect the latest thinking. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast but its noted that the spread in the models has decreased some as well which allows for less uncertainty. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.
Future model runs are hoped to provide further clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal though it has lessened since Friday Morning. Its hoped that the spread will continue to decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. One more coordination message will have more info and clarity on the storm situation before we move into Ops mode. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.936141886480183/936140693146969/?type=3&theater
NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box