Storm Coordination Message #3 – Weekend Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Uncertainty remains higher than normal in potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend with models at a time period where error in storm track is at 100 miles and a difference of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England..
..South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island stand the greatest risk of highest snowfall totals with areas south of the Mass Pike still at risk for some accumulating snow. Strong to Damaging Winds and Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding also remain threats to Southeastern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 4-7″ of snow and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. The winds and snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. A track further north could mean even heavier snow and stronger winds. A track further south means lighter snowfall and somewhat less wind in this area..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Block Island Rhode Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with wind gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat in Southeast New England especially south of Boston through Cape Cod and the Islands on north and east facing beaches. Coastal Flood Watches and/or Advisories will likely be posted in later updates for the high tide cycles Saturday Evening and especially late morning Sunday..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow with areas between the Mass Pike south and north of the Winter Storm Watch area possibly seeing some higher snowfall amounts if models trend northward. Lesser amounts are expected if the track is further south..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track and timing..
The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 750 AM. Models continue to wobble with the track of what will be a historic storm for the US Mid-Atlantic States region. Southern New England is on the northern fringe of the storm’s envelope. Unfortunately, this will cause greater uncertainty in the forecast than normal and makes it a difficult forecast to allow people to plan appropriately for the storm. Current model trends have been northward with the track with South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island standing the greatest risk for heavier snowfall, strong to damaging winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding across north and east facing coast line of Southeast New England. Model error in this time range is 100 miles while a difference of 30-50 miles can make the difference of even heavier snow on the south coast, more snowfall further north, especially up through the Mass Pike region or less snowfall in the region. Of highest confidence is the strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding.
Future model runs are hoped to provide better clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal. Nonetheless, its hoped that the spread will decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.
Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601211156.fxus61.html (Thursday Morning Model Discussion)
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.935871876507184/935870946507277/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Uncertainty remains higher than normal in potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend with models at a time period where error in storm track is at 100 miles and a difference of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England..
..South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island stand the greatest risk of highest snowfall totals with areas south of the Mass Pike still at risk for some accumulating snow. Strong to Damaging Winds and Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding also remain threats to Southeastern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 4-7″ of snow and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. The winds and snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. A track further north could mean even heavier snow and stronger winds. A track further south means lighter snowfall and somewhat less wind in this area..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Block Island Rhode Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with wind gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat in Southeast New England especially south of Boston through Cape Cod and the Islands on north and east facing beaches. Coastal Flood Watches and/or Advisories will likely be posted in later updates for the high tide cycles Saturday Evening and especially late morning Sunday..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow with areas between the Mass Pike south and north of the Winter Storm Watch area possibly seeing some higher snowfall amounts if models trend northward. Lesser amounts are expected if the track is further south..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track and timing..
The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 750 AM. Models continue to wobble with the track of what will be a historic storm for the US Mid-Atlantic States region. Southern New England is on the northern fringe of the storm’s envelope. Unfortunately, this will cause greater uncertainty in the forecast than normal and makes it a difficult forecast to allow people to plan appropriately for the storm. Current model trends have been northward with the track with South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island standing the greatest risk for heavier snowfall, strong to damaging winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding across north and east facing coast line of Southeast New England. Model error in this time range is 100 miles while a difference of 30-50 miles can make the difference of even heavier snow on the south coast, more snowfall further north, especially up through the Mass Pike region or less snowfall in the region. Of highest confidence is the strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding.
Future model runs are hoped to provide better clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal. Nonetheless, its hoped that the spread will decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.
Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601211156.fxus61.html (Thursday Morning Model Discussion)
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.935871876507184/935870946507277/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box