Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday Evening 3/20/16-Monday Morning 3/21/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Overnight model runs coalescing around a closer to the coast and stronger coastal storm track resulting in heavier snow across portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for heavier snow further north and west in Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Sunday Night through 11 AM Monday Morning for all of Rhode Island except for Block Island and for Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. Wind gusts inland will be near 30 MPH with wind gusts at the coast in the 35-45 MPH range. These winds coupled with the heavy wet snow may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard from Sunday Afternoon to Monday Morning for 4-8″ of snow except the Outer Cape which may experience only 2-4″ of snow and wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range. In this area, there is some concern that mixed sleet and rain with the snow may cause lower snowfall amounts. If the higher snow amounts occur given the heavy wet nature of the snow, this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 4-7″ of snow. The snow in this area may not be as heavy as other locations but if higher snow amounts are realized, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible from the weight of the heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Hartford County Connecticut from 7 PM Sunday Night to 8 AM Monday Morning for 2-4″ of snow. Areas north and west of the current Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisory could see 1-3″ of snow with isolated 4″ amounts and a Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Nantucket has been cancelled due to rain and sleet holding down snow amounts to 1-3″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 5-10″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system..
There have been some fairly significant changes overnight in the model runs with a stronger storm closer to Southern New England and better agreement among the models. Key items over the course of the day will be to see continued agreement and that there is run to run consistency in the track and intensity of this system. The headlines of the current coordination message reflect the current thinking. Key changes:
1.) Snow will start later and more towards Sunday Evening across Southern New England mainly between the 6-11 PM timeframe. The snow will also end later and more towards the late morning hours especially in Eastern New England resulting in greater impact to the Monday Morning commute.
2.) Wind Gusts at the coast will be slightly stronger, potentially reaching 40-45 MPH. This coupled with the heavy/wet snow will result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Heavier snow expected further North and West. The key area of uncertainty is in the Winter Storm Watch area covering North-Central and Northeast Connecticut and Northeast and South-Central Massachusetts where just a 25-50 mile storm track difference could mean the difference in 4-7″ of snow or 1-2″ of snow.
4.) Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI may seem some rain/sleet mix which could hold down snow amounts though the upper Cape Cod region and potentially Martha’s Vineyard could potentially see the higher snowfall amounts presuming there is little in the way of rain/sleet mixture.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 5-10″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system. Another coordination message will be posted if time allows by 10 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #:(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Overnight model runs coalescing around a closer to the coast and stronger coastal storm track resulting in heavier snow across portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for heavier snow further north and west in Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Sunday Night through 11 AM Monday Morning for all of Rhode Island except for Block Island and for Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. Wind gusts inland will be near 30 MPH with wind gusts at the coast in the 35-45 MPH range. These winds coupled with the heavy wet snow may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard from Sunday Afternoon to Monday Morning for 4-8″ of snow except the Outer Cape which may experience only 2-4″ of snow and wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range. In this area, there is some concern that mixed sleet and rain with the snow may cause lower snowfall amounts. If the higher snow amounts occur given the heavy wet nature of the snow, this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 4-7″ of snow. The snow in this area may not be as heavy as other locations but if higher snow amounts are realized, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible from the weight of the heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Hartford County Connecticut from 7 PM Sunday Night to 8 AM Monday Morning for 2-4″ of snow. Areas north and west of the current Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisory could see 1-3″ of snow with isolated 4″ amounts and a Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Nantucket has been cancelled due to rain and sleet holding down snow amounts to 1-3″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 5-10″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system..
There have been some fairly significant changes overnight in the model runs with a stronger storm closer to Southern New England and better agreement among the models. Key items over the course of the day will be to see continued agreement and that there is run to run consistency in the track and intensity of this system. The headlines of the current coordination message reflect the current thinking. Key changes:
1.) Snow will start later and more towards Sunday Evening across Southern New England mainly between the 6-11 PM timeframe. The snow will also end later and more towards the late morning hours especially in Eastern New England resulting in greater impact to the Monday Morning commute.
2.) Wind Gusts at the coast will be slightly stronger, potentially reaching 40-45 MPH. This coupled with the heavy/wet snow will result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Heavier snow expected further North and West. The key area of uncertainty is in the Winter Storm Watch area covering North-Central and Northeast Connecticut and Northeast and South-Central Massachusetts where just a 25-50 mile storm track difference could mean the difference in 4-7″ of snow or 1-2″ of snow.
4.) Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI may seem some rain/sleet mix which could hold down snow amounts though the upper Cape Cod region and potentially Martha’s Vineyard could potentially see the higher snowfall amounts presuming there is little in the way of rain/sleet mixture.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 5-10″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system. Another coordination message will be posted if time allows by 10 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #:(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box