Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 8/6/16 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over much of Southern New England around midday through early evening Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now has much of Southern New England, particularly from the Mass Pike south through Southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut and into Southeastern New York in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather across much of the rest of Eastern New York and New England with Eastern Maine also in a slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential..
Satellite and radar imagery is showing some cloud cover and showers across Southern New Hampshire and Northern Massachusetts with some other shower activity in Southeast New York. Much of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut are getting a good amount of sunshine. Clearing follows the shower activity this morning and as we get into the afternoon hours, a cold front will be approaching Southern New England. Presuming the morning shower and any possible thunderstorm activity moves out of the area with any clouds pushing through the region by later this morning to allow for sufficient daytime heating and destabilization for instability, the cold front acting as a triggering mechanism during a favorable time of day and strong wind shear profiles should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms either in a single squall line or a couple of short lines or clusters moving through the region. While favorable remain along and south of the Mass Pike, much of Southern New England could see some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms move through their area. SPC has upgraded much of Southern New England, especially along and south of the Mass Pike to a slight risk for severe weather. As always with severe weather in New England, severe thunderstorms will hit some localized areas and miss others and there are some key factors which will dictate the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms which include:
1.) Current cloud debris and shower activity and its movement through the area to allow clearing or to fire off activity in southern parts of Southern New England by midday.
2.) The timing of the cold front and triggering mechanism into the area. If its timing isn’t near peak heating presuming sufficient heating and destabilization, that may limit strong to severe thunderstorm coverage. If its timed correctly as expected, the timing of the front provided sufficient heating should allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather potential for Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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