Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 12/29/16-Friday Morning 12/30/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines with isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages possible in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated pocket of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Morning for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, and Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts. Initial snowfall amounts expected in this portion of the Watch area is 4-8″ of snow with the highest amounts in the range and isolated higher amounts beyond the range up to 10″ near the New Hampshire border and the lower amounts in Northwest Connecticut depending on amount of mixed precipitation. Snowfall amount forecasts could vary as it will depend on the amount of mixed precipitation and duration and intensity of precipitation as well as the track and intensity of the storm as it rapidly intensifies near our region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region. At the coast, given warm water temperatures, precipitation is likely to be mostly rain perhaps changing to a short period of snow before ending..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England..
A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:
1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…
..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines with isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages possible in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated pocket of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Morning for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, and Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts. Initial snowfall amounts expected in this portion of the Watch area is 4-8″ of snow with the highest amounts in the range and isolated higher amounts beyond the range up to 10″ near the New Hampshire border and the lower amounts in Northwest Connecticut depending on amount of mixed precipitation. Snowfall amount forecasts could vary as it will depend on the amount of mixed precipitation and duration and intensity of precipitation as well as the track and intensity of the storm as it rapidly intensifies near our region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region. At the coast, given warm water temperatures, precipitation is likely to be mostly rain perhaps changing to a short period of snow before ending..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England..
A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:
1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box