Storm Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 3/19/17 Strong Wind/Light Snow Potential
Hello to all…
..Model Trend reverses and brings coastal winter storm further offshore lessening snow impacts but still strong to damaging winds possible on Cape Cod and the Islands with wind gusts to 40 MPH or so in other coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts. There are a couple models that still bring the track closer with greater impacts so radar/satellite trends will bear watching..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard has been cancelled. Only 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts are expected on Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard with snow amounts of 1″ or less elsewhere. If the coastal storm were to deviate closer to the coast, amounts could increase again but that’s currently not expected. It will still be monitored..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. A High Wind Watch remain in effect for Nantucket for sustained winds of 30-35 MPH with wind gusts of 55-60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Winds may be a bit stronger on Nantucket leading to the High Wind Watch being left in place for a conversion to a warning or advisory later tonight or Sunday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton no longer look needed..
The coastal storm system has trended further offshore reducing snow impacts to Southesat New England. Strong winds are still likely particularly for Cape Cod and the Islands though other coastal areas could see wind gusts to around 40 MPH on Sunday. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current thinking. Key factors with this storm system remain as follows:
1.) The track and intensity of the storm system. Most models are moving the system further offshore though holding a stronger intensity. With the further offshore solution, snow amounts were reduced below advisory level and the Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard is cancelled with even less snow expected away from Cape Cod and the Islands. While most reliable models agree on this solution, a couple reliable models still bring the system closer to Southern New England so it will still bear watching.
2.) Any rain/snow line depending on the storm track and when the storm begins to occlude. The further offshore solution would mean mostly snow but light in intensity. An unexpectedly closer storm track would reintroduce the rain/snow line question.
3.) Impacts to roads could be less depending on time of day the heaviest snow is and pavement temperatures and given lighter overall amounts, roads are now more likely to be just wet.
4.) The heavy wet snow threat coupled with the winds is less of a concern but if amounts were to go unexpectedly higher to 4″ or more, it would reintroduce a wet snow coupled with strong to damaging wind threat for tree and power line damage. Even with lighter wet snow amounts, the strong winds themselves will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton no longer look needed. Another coordination message may be posted by 9 AM EDT Sunday Morning if time allows and based on any significant change to the overall storm scenario. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Cancellation Statement, Wind Advisory/High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Cancellation Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory/High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Model Trend reverses and brings coastal winter storm further offshore lessening snow impacts but still strong to damaging winds possible on Cape Cod and the Islands with wind gusts to 40 MPH or so in other coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts. There are a couple models that still bring the track closer with greater impacts so radar/satellite trends will bear watching..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard has been cancelled. Only 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts are expected on Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard with snow amounts of 1″ or less elsewhere. If the coastal storm were to deviate closer to the coast, amounts could increase again but that’s currently not expected. It will still be monitored..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. A High Wind Watch remain in effect for Nantucket for sustained winds of 30-35 MPH with wind gusts of 55-60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Winds may be a bit stronger on Nantucket leading to the High Wind Watch being left in place for a conversion to a warning or advisory later tonight or Sunday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton no longer look needed..
The coastal storm system has trended further offshore reducing snow impacts to Southesat New England. Strong winds are still likely particularly for Cape Cod and the Islands though other coastal areas could see wind gusts to around 40 MPH on Sunday. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current thinking. Key factors with this storm system remain as follows:
1.) The track and intensity of the storm system. Most models are moving the system further offshore though holding a stronger intensity. With the further offshore solution, snow amounts were reduced below advisory level and the Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard is cancelled with even less snow expected away from Cape Cod and the Islands. While most reliable models agree on this solution, a couple reliable models still bring the system closer to Southern New England so it will still bear watching.
2.) Any rain/snow line depending on the storm track and when the storm begins to occlude. The further offshore solution would mean mostly snow but light in intensity. An unexpectedly closer storm track would reintroduce the rain/snow line question.
3.) Impacts to roads could be less depending on time of day the heaviest snow is and pavement temperatures and given lighter overall amounts, roads are now more likely to be just wet.
4.) The heavy wet snow threat coupled with the winds is less of a concern but if amounts were to go unexpectedly higher to 4″ or more, it would reintroduce a wet snow coupled with strong to damaging wind threat for tree and power line damage. Even with lighter wet snow amounts, the strong winds themselves will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton no longer look needed. Another coordination message may be posted by 9 AM EDT Sunday Morning if time allows and based on any significant change to the overall storm scenario. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Cancellation Statement, Wind Advisory/High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Cancellation Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory/High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box