Storm Coordination Message #3 – Friday 3/31/17-Saturday 4/1/17 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts remain uncertain given spread in the model guidance. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning in Central and Western areas and possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast parts of the area..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the 8-12″ range near the New Hampshire border and icing of up to one-tenth of an inch. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-6″ of snow and sleet with isolated higher amounts. If higher snowfall amounts occur, this could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Worst conditions expected late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Northern Connecticut and Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts near the Mass Pike and a trace to a quarter inch of ice accretion at elevations above 800 feet..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Norfolk County Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow and one-tenth inch of ice. The heaviest precipitation will be Friday Afternoon into Friday Night..
..Strong Winds will be possible later Friday Night and Saturday in the coastal plain with the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Saturday Morning and Saturday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity Friday Morning into mid-afternoon with SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible mid to late Friday Afternoon through late Friday Night..
Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking but could change as models remain divergent in terms of storm track and amount of cold air over the region but the current advisory, watch expansion and snow/sleet/ice amounts are based on current model trends. As mentioned previously, key factors for this storm system:
1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation with heavier precipitation possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast Massachusetts. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type. The uncertainty should gradually reduce as we get closer to the storm event.
This type of winter storm could have higher variability in precipitation type and snow and ice amounts based on location and elevation. Spotter reports for this storm system per the reporting criteria will be critical during this event.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity Friday Morning into mid-afternoon with SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible late Friday Afternoon through late Friday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts remain uncertain given spread in the model guidance. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning in Central and Western areas and possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast parts of the area..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the 8-12″ range near the New Hampshire border and icing of up to one-tenth of an inch. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-6″ of snow and sleet with isolated higher amounts. If higher snowfall amounts occur, this could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Worst conditions expected late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Northern Connecticut and Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts near the Mass Pike and a trace to a quarter inch of ice accretion at elevations above 800 feet..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Norfolk County Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow and one-tenth inch of ice. The heaviest precipitation will be Friday Afternoon into Friday Night..
..Strong Winds will be possible later Friday Night and Saturday in the coastal plain with the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Saturday Morning and Saturday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity Friday Morning into mid-afternoon with SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible mid to late Friday Afternoon through late Friday Night..
Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking but could change as models remain divergent in terms of storm track and amount of cold air over the region but the current advisory, watch expansion and snow/sleet/ice amounts are based on current model trends. As mentioned previously, key factors for this storm system:
1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation with heavier precipitation possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast Massachusetts. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type. The uncertainty should gradually reduce as we get closer to the storm event.
This type of winter storm could have higher variability in precipitation type and snow and ice amounts based on location and elevation. Spotter reports for this storm system per the reporting criteria will be critical during this event.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity Friday Morning into mid-afternoon with SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible late Friday Afternoon through late Friday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box