June 2017 – Page 2

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 6/19/17 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

June 18, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated brief tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday. The timeframe for severe weather and flash flood potential is between 2-11 PM EDT Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of Northern Connecticut and is now expanded to include Worcester and Northern Middlesex County of Massachusetts and Tolland County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
..Please note that the scheduled Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th lasting through Friday June 23rd given the severe weather potential for Monday June 19th..

Not much change to the earlier thinking on severe weather and flash flooding potential and the key factors that can affect that potential. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland County Connecticut. It is noted as sent out in a separate message that the NWS Taunton Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th. The text of that separate message is listed below:

The NWS Taunton Major Doppler Radar Upgrade previously announced to start on Monday 6/19/17 will be delayed to Tuesday 6/20/17 due to the severe weather and flash flooding potential in western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area for Monday 6/19/17. This means the upgrade will cover approximately four days from Tuesday 6/20/17 through Friday 6/23/17. The details can be seen at the following link to the Public Information Statement:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706181431-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

The remainder of the text below is unchanged except to note that the next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning.

Warm and humid air will be entrenched across Southern New England as we head into the day on Monday. A cold front will approach Southern New England Monday Afternoon and move through the region in the late afternoon Monday through Monday Night. Strong wind shear profiles with expected heating and destabilization are expecting to offset a couple other unfavorable parameters for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. As the front and any strong to severe thunderstorms make there way eastward it will be into the later afternoon and evening and that will mean weakening of thunderstorms as they move into Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the potential for Monday. Key factors for the severe weather and flash flood potential include:

1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning regarding the severe weather and flash flooding potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170618_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Special Announcement: NWS Taunton Major Doppler Radar Upgrade Start Date Delayed to Tuesday 6/20/17 Due to Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

June 18, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706181431-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 6/19/17 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

June 18, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

Warm and humid air will be entrenched across Southern New England as we head into the day on Monday. A cold front will approach Southern New England Monday Afternoon and move through the region in the late afternoon Monday through Monday Night. Strong wind shear profiles with expected heating and destabilization are expecting to offset a couple other unfavorable parameters for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. As the front and any strong to severe thunderstorms make there way eastward it will be into the later afternoon and evening and that will mean weakening of thunderstorms as they move into Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the potential for Monday. Key factors for the severe weather and flash flood potential include:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM tonight regarding the severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: NWS Taunton Doppler Radar Major Upgrade – Radar Out of Service June 19th Through June 22nd 2017

June 15, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

The following link us a Public Information Statement regarding a major upgrade to the NWS Taunton radar which will render it out of service Monday June 19th through Thursday June 22nd. Details on the NWS Taunton Doppler Radar major upgrade can be found via the following link:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706151603-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 6/13/17 Severe Weather Potential

June 13, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity today with a Heat Advisory now in effect through 600 PM EDT for Western Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts will give way to a cold front sweeping through this afternoon and evening and severe weather potential followed by cooler temperatures for the second half of this week..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely across portions of Southern New England Tuesday anytime from around 12-1 PM through 9 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around Noon-1 PM EDT to monitor severe weather potential..

Tuesday will mark the end of a string of hot and humid days as a cold front will move south over the region during the day on Tuesday. Instability will be quite high with sufficient heating and destabilization commencing across the area starting in the morning. The cold frontal timing is now expected to be a bit later and optimal in allowing for max destabilization of the atmosphere with the cold front moving through the region in the mid-afternoon through early evening timeframe from north-northwest to south-southeast. Wind shear profiles are marginal but will increase over the course of the day as the front moves through the region. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. SPC has the region in a marginal risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around Noon-1 PM EDT to monitor severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Heat Advisory Statement and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 6/13/17 Severe Weather Potential

June 12, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely across portions of Southern New England Tuesday anytime between Noon and 8 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at Noon EDT to monitor severe weather potential..

Tuesday will mark the end of a string of hot and humid days as a cold front will move south over the region during the day on Tuesday. Instability levels should be quite high with sufficient heating and destabilization commencing across the area starting in the morning. The cold frontal timing is near optimal or just a touch early in allowing for max destabilization of the atmosphere. Wind shear profiles are marginal but will increase over the course of the day as the front moves through the region. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. SPC has the region in a marginal risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at Noon EDT to monitor severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170612_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday Night 6/5/17-Tuesday Morning 6/6/17 Storm Potential

June 5, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Cool and Wet Pattern may bring potential for heavier convective showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage flooding. Also, strong wind gusts around the 40 MPH range, just below wind advisory criteria, are possible to likely particularly along East Coastal Massachusetts which may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages due to fully foliated trees. The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will be overnight into Tuesday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind and heavy rainfall potential overnight into Tuesday Morning. This will be the only coordination message unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Remembering the June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak – 6th Anniversary

June 1, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

We have reached the six-year anniversary of a historic day in Southern New England Weather History. The June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak will be a day long remembered in weather history. This announcement recaps the tornado outbreak and the lessons learned that apply today. This message is leveraged from prior anniversary messages with some updates.

The June 1st, 2011 event was forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma as far as 5 days out. This is very rare for New England to be in a convective outlook past 3 days. The outlook of ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather would continue right up through June 1st. As we got into June 1st, a fast moving area of rapidly developing severe thunderstorms ahead of the warm front affected portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts producing large hail. These storms quickly moved out of area and were a sign of things to come and how explosive the atmosphere was on June 1st. Abundant sunshine and rapid heating and destabilization coupled with extremely strong wind shear values, set the stage for a historic major severe weather outbreak in Massachusetts and other parts of New England. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion highlighting the need for Tornado Watches for much of New York and New England. The Tornado Watches would be issued and supercell severe thunderstorms would move into Southern New England.

Initially the supercells produced very large hail including hail slightly over 4″ in diameter in East Windsor Massachusetts, Berkshire County, which may potentially set the new record for the commonwealth as far as hail size but no tornadic or wind damage activity through 400 PM. This is when the supercell began to take shape in Western Hampden County Massachusetts and set the stage for the large, long track EF-3 Tornado that traversed the area from Westfield to Charlton Massachusetts for a 38-mile long damage path and was on the ground for 70 minutes. Three smaller tornadoes occurred in Western and Central Massachusetts from additional supercells moving through the area. Another area of supercells went through Northern Worcester County into Middlesex and Suffolk Counties producing Golf Ball Sized hail and pockets of wind damage all the way into the Metro Boston area.

June 1st, 2011 underscored how important Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters are to the warning process and how the timely severe weather reporting can not only help the warning process but can also help saves lives. The near real-time reporting of the large EF-3 tornado touchdown with initial preliminary reports in Westfield, the actual spotting of the EF3 Tornado by several Amateurs including KB1NOX-Richard Stewart who was in a car with several other Amateurs and Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinator, Ray Weber-KA1JJM, and the amazing remote webcam footage from WWLP-TV channel 22 in Springfield Massachusetts helped to tell people that not only was this a radar detected tornado but that it was definitely on the ground and doing significant damage. It is quite likely that many lives were saved by this near realtime reporting of the tornado being on the ground.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active on several Amateur Radio Repeaters including the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater run by the Mount Tom Amateur Radio Club and with Amateur Radio members and SKYWARN Spotters from the Hampden County Radio Association also reporting into the net. The 146.970-Paxton Repeater run by the Central Massachusetts Amateur Radio Club was active for several hours as well. Both repeaters providing significant near realtime reporting for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes not only to the National Weather Service but also to the media, local, state and federal emergency management officials. The Amateur Radio Internet Radio Linking Project (IRLP)/Echolink system on the echolink conference *NEW-ENG* node 9123/IRLP 9123 was also active with liaisons from various Amateur Radio nets reporting into the network. While not in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, the 146.910-Mount Greylock Repeater was active with Berkshire County SKYWARN as run by Rick-WA1ZHM with Walt-N1DQU providing information from the net into NWS Taunton. Net Controls for the 146.940 Mount Tom Net were Bob Meneguzzo-K1YO and for the 146.970 Paxton Net, John Ruggiero-N2YHK. N9SC-Steve Craven provided a critical liaison link from the 146.970-Paxton Repeater Net to the 146.940-Mount Tom Net during the tornadic outbreak. Many Amateur Radio Operators and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters reported severe weather conditions despite being at risk from these powerful supercells. We are forever grateful for the reporting that helped save lives. The outpouring of damage assessment pictures and videos and reports near and after the event was unprecedented. This clearly helped Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), local and state emergency management perform their duties to try and bring as many resources to bear on the significant path of destruction carved out by the tornado outbreak.

For the victims, today is likely a painful reminder of what occurred and what loses they face and in some cases are still recovering from in terms of property damage and possibly lives lost. Our thoughts and prayers remain to all those people that are affected and we hope that they have fully recovered and moved on with their lives after this tornado outbreak.

For those not impacted by such a significant event as June 1st and not impacted severely by the likes of Irene, Snowtober, Sandy, the February 2013 Blizzard, the 2014 EF-2 Revere Massachusetts Tornado and the August 4th 2015 severe weather outbreak over the past 6 years, this is a reminder that we must all be prepared for these significant weather situations that occur at low frequency but can be with high impact. The more self-sufficient and prepared we are, the easier the situation will be if we are faced with such a significant scenario if it comes our way and potentially occurs in a more widespread way. For those SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who have not witnessed such severe weather, this is why we train and prepare because we never know the hour or day where a critical severe weather report can help the warning process and save lives.

On a personal level, we never want severe weather like this to happen but if it has to happen, the level of commitment, support and reporting of the situation in near realtime on June 1st with a high level of precision and quality but also in the quantity that the reports came through in our network is a testament to all of you for remaining dedicated and supportive of the National Weather Service SKYWARN program. It is an honor and a privilege for myself and many of our Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area to serve as leaders of the program and we appreciate everything you do, as without all of you, we wouldn’t have the SKYWARN program we have today in our region. Having been the leader of the program for over 20 years, this was our finest hour in supporting the NWS Taunton office and saving lives and it couldn’t have been done without all of your support.

We hope this remembrance makes people never forget what happened on June 1st 2011 and remind ourselves again that we must remain, prepared and vigilant especially here in New England where events such as June 1st can happen but on a low frequency basis. A June 1st 2011 video collage has been posted at our SKYWARN video page at video.nsradio.org with recordings of some of the Amateur Radio reports that came in through the network and a direct link is listed below. Also listed below is the NWS Taunton – Massachusetts Tornado Summary, the NWS Taunton June 1st, 2011 Facebook Graphic, the ARRL Story on the June 1st Tornado Outbreak, the NWS Taunton June 1st Local Storm Report and the Raw Storm log from the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Station.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Video – June 1st, 2011:
http://www.nsradio.org/video/features/recap/2011tornado/index.html

NWS Taunton June 1st, 2011 Facebook Graphics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057/1379858412108526/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports 6/1/11:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_6_1_11.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Tornado Classifications from 6/1/11:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_6_1_11.txt

ARRL Story from 6/1/11 – Central Massachusetts Experiences Rare Tornado, Area Hams Hasten to Help:
http://www.arrl.org/news/central-massachusetts-experiences-rare-tornado-area-hams-hasten-to-help

NWS Taunton-WX1BOX Raw Amateur Radio Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 6/1/17 Severe Weather Potential

June 1, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms possible today in Eastern New England from early this afternoon through early this evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor today’s severe weather potential. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms..

Yesterday brought a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England with hail as the main severe weather mode and isolated wind damage reports noted as well. The Local Storm Report from yesterday, the WX1BOX report log and Facebook Photo Album on yesterday’s severe weather can be seen below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_5_31_17.txt

NWS Taunton Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_5_31_17.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1580500485317297

For today, the front that caused yesterday’s severe weather has stalled over Eastern New England. There is a cold pool of air aloft that remains and sufficient sun for heating and destabilization with sufficiently strong winds aloft. Moisture, however, will be drying as we go through the day and can likely limit the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible today in Eastern New England. The timeframe is from early this afternoon through early this evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor today’s severe weather potential. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms. This will likely be the only coordinaton message on this storm unless Ops are initiated and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

June 1, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

Today, June 1st, marks the start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. NWS Taunton has sent out a Public Information Statement regarding the start of the season including storm names, some Southern New England Hurricane History and tropical system safety tips. The National Hurricane Center has now started issuing their Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks and have provided info on storm names and their various products. Details at the following links:

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_start_of_hurricane_season_2017_NWS_BOX.txt

National Hurricane Center – Start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season – Tropical Weather Outlook and Overview of Products:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/two_atl_nhc_hurricane_season_start_2017.txt

Its never hurts to have preparations in place and review safety rules prior to any impending tropical system affecting the region. This info can help you stay informed and understand products issued by the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Taunton and prepare properly if Southern New England were to be affected by a tropical system this season.

Respectfully Submitted,

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