Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday July 8th, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Saturday, possibly as early as late Saturday Morning and extending through the early evening hours Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday for much of Southern New England and could upgrade to a slight risk in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 11 AM Saturday Morning..

On Friday, significant flash flooding affected portions of Cape Cod from Falmouth and Sandwich through Barnstable, Dennis and Yarmouth and to a lesser extent on Outer Cape Cod. Storm report information and a few flooding photos can be seen at the following links:

WX1BOX Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_7_17.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1622155554485123

For today, there remains a risk for at least a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as a cold front sweeps through the region. Some high-resolution models have been hinting at a more widespread severe weather event in Southern New England and this will be monitored closely today. There will be sufficiently strong winds aloft to support the severe weather potential. Satellite imagery shows low clouds burning off across Southern New England and there has been on convective activity so far this morning to preclude heating and destabilization with activity staying largely north and west of Southern New England. Model timing is now bringing the cold front and any pre-frontal trough towards this afternoon and evening. The headlines of the coordination message continue to capture the current situation well. The key remaining items that will determine the extent and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are as follows:

1.) Continued heating and destabilization through the morning and early afternoon hours for sufficient instability.
2.) Whether too much mid-level dry air keeps coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms limited or causes a lack of strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 11 AM Saturday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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