Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Heavy Rainfall/Damaging Wind/Severe Weather Potential – Friday Evening 11/2/18-Saturday 11/13/18

Hello to all…
..First round of strong winds and heavy rainfall moved through the area this morning. Another round of heavy rainfall and the potential for an Isolated Strong to Severe thunderstorm is expected late tonight into Saturday Morning. Strong to damaging winds is the main threat with any severe thunderstorm and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a marginal risk for severe weather in Western New England through early Saturday Morning and expanded it to Eastern New England for Saturday Morning into early afternoon..
..Strong to damaging winds behind the cold front are expected Saturday Afternoon into the evening. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from Noon to 7 PM Saturday for Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties as well as Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 50-60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Noon to 7 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts between 45-55 MPH. These winds will result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions through early Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening for the strong to damaging wind potential..
The first round of rain and strong winds has moved through the area with wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range in portions of Southeast New England and some isolated tree damage. The second round of heavy rain and strong to damaging winds will come into the region late Friday Night and Saturday Morning with the potential of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm bringing strong to damaging winds as the primary threat with a low but non-zero threat of an isolated tornado. Following the next slug of heavy rain and strong winds, the cold front will sweep through the area resulting in a period of strong to damaging winds across the region during Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines cover the current situation well.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions through early Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening for the strong to damaging wind potential. A coordination message in some form will be posted Saturday Morning to update the SKYWARN Activation status for the strong winds. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20181102_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 11/2/18-Saturday 11/3/18 Heavy Rainfall/Strong to Damaging Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Heavy rainfall with the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm late this morning and again Friday Evening into early Saturday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a marginal risk for severe weather in Western New England with strong winds now the main threat in any severe thunderstorm, however, the severe thunderstorm risk overall has been reduced since the last update. Heavy rainfall could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in localized areas that receive heavy rainfall. Strong to Damaging Wind threat for Saturday Afternoon into the evening has increased..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 60 MPH possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions Friday into Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

Not much change to the previous coordination message and the headlines depict the current update. The key changes are as follows:
1.) The severe thunderstorm risk is reduced but an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the area. Heavy rainfall and localized urban and poor drainage flooding remain concerns.
2.) The risk for strong to damaging winds has increased for Saturday Afternoon and Evening and a High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions Friday into Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 800 PM EDT Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 11/2/18-Saturday 11/3/18 Storm/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…
..Heavy rainfall in convective showers in 2 rounds one Friday Morning through Friday early Afternoon and Friday Night into Saturday Morning has the potential for urban to poor drainage flooding in localized areas with the potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 2″ or more..
..There is also the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to potentially damaging winds. There is once again a low risk of an isolated tornado given the strong shear if limited instability can be maximized. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday Morning through late Friday Night into early Saturday Morning…
..Strong to damaging winds behind the cold front are possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the weather over the next couple of days. A more detailed coordination message will be posted Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20181101_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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