September 2019

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 9/26/19 Severe Weather Potential

September 26, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Strong Wind Gusts in convective heavier showers and isolated strong to possibly even a severe thunderstorm is possible across Southern New England late this afternoon through early this evening. Lightning and other risks are low but strong winds in the upper level of the atmosphere and ahead of a cold front and any convective showers and thunderstorms may allow for strong winds to transport down to the surface allowing for isolated tree and power line damage and isolated power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this potential for late Thursday Afternoon and evening. This will be the only coordination message posted on this potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Uncategorized

Hurricane Dorian Coordination Message #2 – Late Friday Night 9/6/19-Saturday 9/7/19 Tropical Storm Conditions on Cape Cod and the Islands

September 6, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Dorian is expected to pass southeast of Nantucket Island late Friday Night into early Saturday Morning. The track will bring a period of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to Cape Cod and the Islands during this timeframe with high surf and rip currents over portions of the Southern New England coast..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for the potential of sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages along with minor coastal flooding particularly around Nantucket. There is the potential for 1-4″ of rain in the Tropical Storm Warning area with the worst conditions between 2 AM-12 PM Saturday..
..Areas of Southeast New England nearest the tropical storm warning area may see wind gusts to 30-40 MPH and up to 1.5″ of rain. There is also the possibility of a band of rainfall in Western New England that could produce up to 1″ of rain not directly associated with Dorian..
..Track uncertainty of around 50 miles is still present. A track closer to the coast would mean somewhat higher impacts in the tropical storm warning area and perhaps stronger impacts north and west of the current Tropical Storm Warning area. A track further offshore would confine tropical storm impacts to Nantucket Island Massachusetts..
..A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 4 PM Friday Afternoon through 6 PM Saturday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and from 6 AM-6 PM Saturday for Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for tropical storm conditions on Cape Cod and Islands. The 146.955-Barnstable Repeater will be monitored during this tropical storm event. It is noted that these impacts will be similar to a quick hitting nor’easter. The hurricane will remain offshore so hurricane conditions are not expected..

Hurricane Dorian is expected to track southeast of Nantucket Island Late Friday Night into Saturday Morning. This will result in tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod and the Islands where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) Eventual track of Dorian. As stated in the headlines, the track uncertainty is about 50 miles and a slightly closer track by this amount may allow for slightly stronger tropical storm force conditions over Cape Cod and the Islands and could extend those conditions a little further north and west while a track 50 miles further offshore would mean impacts confined to Nantucket Island.
2.) The hurricane combined with strong high pressure along with warm ocean temperatures and slightly cooler air aloft has the potential to allow for an expanding wind gradient that will support the stronger wind gusts that our tropical storm strength in the watch area if Dorian’s track is close enough.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for tropical storm conditions on Cape Cod and Islands. The 146.955-Barnstable Repeater will be monitored during this tropical storm event. It is noted that these impacts will be similar to a quick hitting nor’easter. The hurricane will remain offshore so hurricane conditions are not expected. This will likely be the last coordination message on Dorian unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton – Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton – High Surf Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Hurricane Dorian Coordination Message #1 – Friday Night 9/6/19-Early Saturday Morning 9/7/19 Tropical Storm Conditions on Cape and Islands

September 5, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Dorian is expected to pass southeast of Nantucket Island late Friday Night into early Saturday Morning. The track may bring a period of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to Cape Cod and the Islands during this timeframe..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for the potential of sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages along with minor coastal flooding particularly around Nantucket. There could also be the potential for 1-4″ of rain in the Tropical Storm Watch area..
..Areas of Southeast New England nearest the tropical storm watch area may see wind gusts to 30-40 MPH and up to 1″ of rain..
..Track uncertainty of around 50 miles is still present. A track closer to the coast would mean somewhat higher impacts in the tropical storm watch area and perhaps stronger impacts north and west of the current Tropical Storm Watch area. A track further offshore would confine tropical storm impacts to Nantucket Island Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for tropical storm conditions on Cape Cod and Islands. It is noted that these impacts will be similar to a quick hitting nor’easter. The hurricane will remain offshore so hurricane conditions are not expected..

Hurricane Dorian is expected to track southeast of Nantucket Island Late Friday Night into Saturday Morning. This will potentially result in tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod and the Islands. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors includes:

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for tropical storm conditions on Cape Cod and Islands. It is noted that these impacts will be similar to a quick hitting nor’easter. The hurricane will remain offshore so hurricane conditions are not expected. Another coordination message will be posted Thursday Evening or Friday Morning depending on any change to the Tropical Storm Watches for the Cape and Islands. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton – Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 9/4/19 Severe Weather Potential

September 4, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from north and west of a Boston to Providence line through much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but there is also a secondary risk of large hail and an isolated tornado..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England from Windham County Connecticut, Middlesex, and western Essex counties of Massachusetts north and west in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather in Southeast New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..Timeframe for severe weather is expected to be between 2-9 PM Wednesday and a Mesoscale Convective Discussion has been issued indicating an 80% chance of a watch for much of Southern New England.
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is likely between 1-2 PM Wednesday Afternoon..

Clearing is occurring across much of the marginal and slight risk areas late this morning allowing for increased instability. There will be strong winds aloft above what is required for severe weather potential with strong forcing and a trigger with a cold front in the region. The extent of the severe weather potential will be based on the level of instability. There will also be some turning in the atmosphere which may allow for an isolated tornado and large hail risk. Given the clearing trend and if it continues, this may allow for a fairly potent severe weather event particularly in the slight risk severe weather area and will be monitored closely. The headlines of the message depict the current thinking.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is likely between 1-2 PM Wednesday Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message on this event as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion #1924:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1924.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 9/4/19 Severe Weather Potential

September 4, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from north and west of a Boston to Providence line north and west across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but there is also a low risk of large hail and an isolated tornado..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England northwest of a Boston to Providence line through Eastern New York and Northern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with the potential of an upgrade to slight risk in later outlooks if more instability materializes. Timeframe for severe weather is expected to be between 1-9 PM Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is likely by 1 PM Wednesday Afternoon. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190903_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized