Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Evening 11/15/20-Early Monday Morning 11/16/20 – Severe Weather & Damaging Wind Potential
Hello to all…
..Strong cold front will make its way through Southern New England and bring with it the potential for strong to damaging winds and a convective fine line of showers and thunderstorms which will likely enhance the wind damage potential as it is becoming more likely that this line develops as models indicated. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the slight risk area covering most of Connecticut and West-Central Rhode Island..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 PM Sunday until 1 AM Monday for all of Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and Southern Worcester, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Other areas could see wind gusts to 40-45 MPH with much higher gusts in the convective line of showers and thunderstorms likely. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Morning..
A strong cold front will have the potential to bring general strong to damaging winds with a possible enhanced setup for damaging winds in a fine line of showers and thunderstorms that potentially develops and sweeps through the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) The environment can be characterized by a low instability/high shear environment. It is appearing more likely that the jet dynamics and wind shear aloft can compensate for lower instability, and that means the wind damage threat from a convective line of showers and thunderstorms is increasing. Trends will be monitored closely regarding the evolution of this convective line of showers and thunderstorms.
2.) If instability is higher than projected with the current projections for strong to damaging winds aloft, that would also increase the threat for damaging winds in the region. At this time, given the jet dynamics, the instability while relatively low will be sufficient for a fine line of convective showers and thunderstorms and an increasing wind damage threat.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Wind Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box