Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 2/7/21 Coastal Storm Hazards
Hello to all…
..Coastal Storm will take aim at portions of Southern New England Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening. Track and intensity of the system is a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range and model trends over the next 12-18 hours should allow us to get a better handle on this coastal storm system..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night for all of Southeast Massachusetts including Bristol and Plymouth Counties, Cape Cod and the Islands and all of Rhode Island except Northwest Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts at the coast. If model trends continue, there is potential for a widespread 8″ or more of snowfall in portions or possibly all of the Winter Storm Watch area and this will be closely monitored..
..Areas north and west of the Winter Storm Watch area should monitor future forecasts carefully as depending model trends, Winter Storm Watches could be expanded to other parts of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely in the Winter Storm Watch area and possibly other parts of the coverage area depending on the track of this winter storm..
A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. This storm system was modeled to be well out to sea on Wednesday but since Thursday Morning, model trends with only a couple exceptions have trended stronger and closer to the coast with each model run. Some models are more focused on Southeast New England while other models still target Southeast New England for the heaviest snowfall but gives accumulating snow to much of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) If the model trends continue north than much of Southern New England will see an accumulating and potentially heavy snowfall with the highest snowfall in Southeast New England. Less snowfall would occur if a trend to the south and southeast occurs but outside of one or two model runs within the last 36 hours, the general trend has been north and northwest closer to Southern New England to an area near or just south of the benchmark. There could also be a sharp cutoff between the accumulating to heavy snows and a much lighter snowfall.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England.
3.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely in the Winter Storm Watch area and possibly other parts of the coverage area depending on the track of this winter storm. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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