Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 5/23/21 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening anytime between about 2-8 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy downpours with minor urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continue much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday.
..In addition, portions of Eastern New England and marine areas could see strong straightline winds for a brief period of time even without thunderstorms present as the frontal passage goes through with brief wind gusts of 40-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts. This could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages in land areas and cause issues for small boaters out on the water in marine areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon through Evening..

Warm and humid conditions will be prevalent across the region Sunday with a strong cold front pushing through the region. This will setup the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) Amount of instability that is generated from daytime heating, available moisture and moisture convergence as a cold front sweeps through the area. This will be key in determining storm coverage.
2.) Timing of the cold front through peak heating of the day.
3.) Ability of the forcing of the cold front and favorably strong winds aloft to compensate if instability and moisture levels are limited or the timing of the cold front is not near the time of peak heating.
4.) Even if few thunderstorms develop, the conditions along and ahead of a cold front may allow for a brief period of strong wind gusts particularly in Eastern New England and marine areas and this may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and could be an issue for any small boaters out in marine areas and will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon through Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address:
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