Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Elsa Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather Potential & Thursday 7/8/21-Friday 7/9/21 Tropical Storm Elsa Potential
Hello to all…
..Active Weather Pattern through Friday with additional severe weather potential Wednesday and people in Southern New England need to begin monitoring Tropical Storm Elsa for potential impacts of heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track, strong to damaging winds along and southeast of the track including the potential for severe weather and the possibility of minor coastal storm surge flooding..
..Starting with Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk of severe weather today as another potential round of Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely anytime between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday across the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Impacts from Tropical Storm Elsa could be felt beginning late Thursday Night and especially Friday across much of Southern New England. Will briefly mention her potential impacts to the region in this message and provide more details in future coordination messages.
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..
Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. The latest Local Storm Report giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html
Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org.
Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Southern New England. Intense heating and humidity will allow for high instability. Wind fields are similar to Tuesday in the region. Models show a cluster of storms ranging from impacts across much of interior Massachusetts north of the Mass Pike to a similar setup to yesterday where much of Massachusetts, Connecticut and parts of Rhode Island have a line of strong to severe thunderstorms sweep through the region. The key factors on how widespread the potential severe weather is for Wednesday is as follows:
1.) High instability levels compensating for marginally strong wind shear profiles.
2.) If wind shear profiles are a bit stronger than modeled, it would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
3.) A strong enough trigger to tap into the high instability and marginally strong wind fields in the atmosphere.
As we look ahead to the Thursday Night and Friday timeframe, we will have the potential for impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa in our region. Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track and strong to damaging winds, minor coastal flooding and the potential for severe weather along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system with much of the rest of Southern New England getting into the heavy rainfall side of the system. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes across Southern New England. Now is the time to prepare for tropical storm like conditions particularly in Southeast New England with heavy rainfall and potential for pockets of river, stream and urban flooding in portions of interior Southern New England north and west of the storm center. Further details will be posted in future coordination messages.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message more focused on Tropical Storm Elsa will be posted by 11 PM EDT Wednesday Evening or worse case 9 AM EDT Thursday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents
Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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