Hurricane Henri Coordination Message #5 – Sunday 8/22/21-Monday 8/23/21 Henri Impacts
Hello to all…
..Henri has intensified into a hurricane. Hurricane Henri is on track and may strengthen further and will then affect Southern New England Sunday into Monday as either a Category-1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm with a landfall somewhere between Eastern Long Island New York and Eastern Connecticut through Eastern Rhode Island. Damaging winds, the threat for severe weather and isolated tornadoes along and to the east of the track, heavy rainfall and flooding and coastal storm surge flooding are all potential threats..
..A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to West of Westport Massachusetts and includes Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island. In this area, the potential for sustained or wind gusts to the hurricane force will cause widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Chatham Massachusetts and includes Hartford, Tolland, Windham, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. In this area, sustained winds of 30-50 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts will have the potential to cause widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the late Saturday Night to Monday timeframe with a Storm Surge Watch remaining in effect from Chatham to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts. Storm surge of 2-5 feet above tide levels will have the potential to cause widespread pockets of shore road flooding across the Storm Surge Warning area with those conditions possible in the storm surge watch area..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from Saturday Evening through Monday Morning for 3-6″ of rain with isolated higher amounts. This rainfall can cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, rivers and streams particularly given the prior rainfall of the past 6-8 weeks..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday for the potential of thunderstorms mixing damaging winds down to the surface as well as the risk for isolated tornadoes..
..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred caused significant heavy rainfall in portions of Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts on Thursday along with severe weather with two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org..
For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred caused two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, CT. A waterspout from the same parent cell that caused storm damage in Thompson, CT occurred in Webster, Massachusetts. Further details on these tornadoes can be seen in the Public Information Statement at the following link:
NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Thursday 8/19/21 Confirmed Tornadoes:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108202338.nous41.html
Henri intensified into a hurricane as expected earlier today and some additional slight strengthening is likely overnight as he approaches our region. Henri has turned north-northeastward and will bend northward and then northwest and head on a path that will bring it just east of or over a part of Long Island New York and then the Southern New England coast somewhere between Eastern Connecticut/Eastern Long Island New York and Eastern Rhode Island. Model guidance has clustered more around this solution and range during the day which resulted in the eastward shift of the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings. The headlines reflect the current watches, warnings and thinking. The key factors with Henri are as follows:
1.) The track of Henri and whether a westward trend in the guidance continues or settles on the current track or if some eastward shifts occur. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds, and severe weather but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding. As mentioned above, the model range of near or over Eastern Long Island into Eastern Connecticut to somewhere over Rhode Island is the guidance envelope as Henri closes in on the region.
2.) The intensity and structure of Henri are additional factors. All models strengthen Henri a bit more as it moves towards New England. Its peak intensity along with the size of the tropical storm force and hurricane force wind fields will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England. It is noted the wind field continues to expand along and to the east of the center meaning damaging winds along the east side of Henri will bring strong to damaging winds to inland portions of Southern New England though the strongest winds will be along the coastal areas.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England . Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England or potentially south of New England. Right now this slowing is expected to be inland over Southern New England which may allow the duration of strong winds and heavy rainfall to occur for a longer than normal period than most tropical systems.
4.) The potential for thunderstorms particularly along and to the east side of the track that can bring damaging winds down to the surface and the potential for isolated tornadoes will bear watching Sunday Morning through Sunday evening given the SPC marginal risk for severe weather in much of Southern New England.
Its noted that the Amateur Radio Hurricane Watch Net and VoIP Hurricane Net will both be active for Henri. Please see net their web sites for more information:
Hurricane Watch Net:
https://hwn.org/
VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://voipwx.net/
-Please note that the *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference: node 9123/IRLP 9123 and the VoIP Hurricane Net Echolink conference node *WX_TALK* echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system will be connected to form one large net for Henri.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org.
Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, Public Information Statement on Hurricane Safety Tips and the NHC Hurricane Henri advisory package:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210821_1730.html
NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Safety Tips:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108201412.nous41.html
National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:
Hurricane Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html
Hurricane Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html
Hurricane Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html
Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html
Hurricane Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents
Hurricane Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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