Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Night 1/28/22-late Saturday Night 1/29/22 Major Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..A potential major winter storm will impact portions of Southern New England, particularly Eastern New England, late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard or near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. We are still 2.5-3 days away from the storm impacts so future model runs will determine impacts and there remains spread in the model tracks..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening for 8-18″ of snow and isolated higher amounts with wind gusts 35-50 MPH in the interior and 50-60+ MPH Gusts in Coastal Southern New England. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the current Winter Storm Watch area but could shift into other parts of the region depending on the track and the western edge of the major storm envelope..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..
Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are still moving and have spread in the guidance and therefore we need to monitor closely the trends. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking but please note that we are 2.5-3 days away from impacts and trends in guidance of 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching effect on the impacts to the region. Key factors include:
1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to southeast coastal New England. Trends over the last 24 hours have trended a bit east but could easily trend back a bit west and will be monitored through the overnight into tomorrow.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Some models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff west of the current Winter Storm Watch area. This is why the Winter Storm Watch area is currently over Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts from Cape Ann to Boston to Hopkinton and points south.
3.) Timing and strength of the strongest winds and how far west this extends which will determine wind damage impacts in Eastern New England and how far inland it reaches along with coastal flood impacts.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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