Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Late Monday Afternoon/Evening 5/16/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely over Western Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk for severe weather in this area with a marginal risk for severe weather further east through Eastern Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding possible in the strong to severe thunderstorms. Threat timeframe is 5 PM-11 PM late Monday Afternoon and Evening with the main focus time 5-9 PM as storms will weaken after 9 PM with loss of heating..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..
A cold front will swing through Southern New England and bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for late Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) The timing of the cold front as earlier timing near the time of peak heating would increase the threat for severe weather while later timing would reduce the severe weather potential as instability decreases after sunset. Models are split up on the timing with the current outlook looking a bit later into the region but not quite as late as yesterday’s model runs so the severe weather threat looks highest in our coverage area from Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland counties of Connecticut west with some risk a bit further east into Worcester and Western Middlesex Counties as storms weaken. The severe weather threat remains isolated to scattered in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut with a greater threat in Eastern New York but this will be monitored closely.
2.) Wind shear will be strong and this could compensate for later timing of the cold front if its not timed well after sunset and this aspect will bear watching if the timing of the front is around the 7-9 PM timeframe.
3.) Eastern areas will likely see reduced severe weather potential regardless of items 1 and 2 due to marine effects with southerly winds bringing in the cooler ocean influence but will still be monitored for any severe weather potential.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
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