Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon & Evening 7/25/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected into Monday with a cold front which will bring somewhat cooler and much less humid air that will be a trigger for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe is between 12-10 PM Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 500 PM Monday Evening for portions of Eastern and Southeast Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region with many locations in a 7-day heat wave. During Monday Afternoon and evening, a cold front will bring an end to the heat and especially humidity over the region during the past week. This cold front will be stronger than the one on Thursday with the potential for more widespread coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region but as is usually case, not every city or town will see a strong to severe thunderstorm. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Evolution of overnight convection and how much cloud cover affects the region Monday to see how much heating and destabilization occurs. There will be at least some heating but if temperatures get warmer than forecast, it would be an added trigger to bring more severe weather potential to the region.
2.) The timing of the cold front which is expected to be maybe a bit early for western areas but in the time of peak heating for central and eastern areas. This will bear watching tomorrow and will affect areas that have the most severe weather potential with favorable wind shear, instability and forcing with the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220724_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org