Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon & Evening 7/25/23 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-9 PM across much of Southern New England with the greatest potential in interior Southern New England from roughly Southwest Massachusetts and the Connecticut River Valley through Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island and Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..Additionally, SPC has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday as oppressive heat and humidity builds into the region. Future coordination messages on Wednesday will detail this severe weather potential and the oppressive heat potential for the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..A Post Severe Weather/Flood Coordination Message from the Friday 7/21/23 flash flood and severe weather event will be posted later today or on Wednesday as we wrap up data, pictures, videos etc. that have come in while handling today’s severe weather potential and the team also handled isolated strong thunderstorm activity from Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Self-Activation, at minimum, is likely on Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Continued periodic chances for severe weather and flooding continue this week along with the potential for a heat wave in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe. This message focuses on today’s potential across Southern New England with another potentially more robust severe weather event on Thursday that will be handled in future coordination messages along with the oppressive heat potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Tuesday’s severe weather potential include:

1.) Timing of the trough axis into Southern New England. This timing has varied the severe weather potential from early to mid afternoon to the later afternoon/early evening timeframe so there is a wide range in time on the severe weather potential.
2.) Upper level Wind Shear and certain instability parameters are favorable but lower levels of the atmosphere winds and other instability parameters are unfavorable so the more favorable parameters will be key in overcoming the unfavorable ones for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Self-Activation, at minimum, is likely on Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will likely be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address:
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