Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon/Evening/Overnight 8/12/23 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and are possible throughout the rest of Southern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
Several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Start time of severe weather. The start time range could be as early as 2-3 PM or as late as 7 PM so there is variance in the start time based on the various models.
2.) The severe weather potential could extend during the overnight hours including the threat for isolated tornadoes during this period as wind shear, jet dynamics and turning in the atmosphere compensate for the loss of daytime heating and actually increase through the evening and overnight hours.
3.) There will be several rounds of activity with the potential for 2 or 3 rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Saturday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230811_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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