Severe Weather/Heat Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/16/24-Wednesday 7/17/24 – Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut possibly into Northwest Rhode Island Tuesday Afternoon and Evening between 2-10 PM EDT with the latter half of the time range the most likely time for severe weather potential. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut into extreme Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the higher slight risk area further west into Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut for Tuesday. An enhanced risk for severe weather is just northeast of the Western Massachusetts border into Northeast New York and Southern Vermont for Tuesday as well.
..There is an additional chance for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening between 1-11 PM EDT as a cold front will bring an end to the heat wave. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut with a marginal risk for severe weather across the west of Southern New England. This will be detailed in a coordination message by Wednesday Morning..
..Intense heat and humidity with a heat wave continues Tuesday through Wednesday as well. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island except for Block Island for heat indices up to 101 expected. Drink plenty of liquids and seek cooler air conditioned areas as needed during the heat wave..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A heat wave started Monday in much of Southern New England and along with the heat wave, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms impacted portions of Western Massachusetts and the area from Hingham to Cohasset Mass. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/reports_7_15_24.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/LSR_7_15_24.pdf

The heat wave continues through Wednesday along with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday, particularly in Western and Central Southern New England and for much of Southern New England on Wednesday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Tuesday include:

1.) A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex or MCV will be moving through Southern Ontario Canada into Western, Central and Eastern New York during the late morning through late afternoon. The timing of this complex of the strong to severe thunderstorms into our coverage area or if strong to severe thunderstorms form out ahead of the complex in western parts of our coverage area near or just past the time of peak heating will determine coverage of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in our area.
2.) Ability for the complex of strong to severe thunderstorms to sustain itself if it arrives later in the evening.
3.) Whether certain limiting instability factors can be overcome by other more favorable instability parameters similar to Monday.
4.) Level of wind shear is a bit less than the minimal criteria for severe thunderstorm development but may be overcome by factors 1-3.

The additional severe weather potential for Wednesday will be covered in future coordination messages most likely Wednesday Morning. The headlines give quick details on Wednesday’s potential as a cold front will end the heat wave over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as needed. This will be the only coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather potential and a message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement & Facebook Infographics on Heat/Severe Weather:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/nmCK1tukqEu1Q6bE/

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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