Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Afternoon/Evening 7/17/25 – Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and much of Connecticut later this Thursday Afternoon and Evening after 4 PM as a cold front will bring the end to the heat and humidity in Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but can’t rule out an isolated tornado if some unfavorable convective parameters for the region are overcome..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening with a slight risk up across portions of Western Maine, Northern New Hampshire and Northern Vermont..
..A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Thursday Evening for much of Southern New England except for the East slopes of the Berkshires and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices up to 100 degrees. Use caution in the heat by hydrating and taking freaking breaks in air conditioning if exerting yourself outdoors today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible to likely this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
Our final day of heat and humidity occurs today as a cold front will bring cooler and less humid conditions Friday into Saturday. It will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) There is favorable shear and satellite imagery shows sufficient clearing for destabilization in the region for later today. Timing of the cold front and forcing with this front seems to be best in Northern New England but we will need to monitor if there is enough forcing to take advantage of favorable shear and instability parameters in the marginal risk area.
2.) There are some limiting severe weather parameters but if they are overcome or better than expected, that could increase the risk for severe weather potential.
3.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms will most likely be isolated to scattered but if items 1 and 2 line up accordingly, it could allow for the severe thunderstorms to be a bit more widespread.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible to likely this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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